Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + Board Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Board Game Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Board Game

Of 33 developers who shipped a Board Game Grand Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 45 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper, while revenue is down 50% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 45 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Board Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.1k → $90 → $2.0k → $899 → $2.1k → $1.8k → $0 (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Board Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,156)
Top 5% $54k (exactly $53,978)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 113
Announced 45
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy, Board Game; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Wargame
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 530 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $540, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $53k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ultimate General: Civil War older $29.99 8,331 88% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,495,401) Game-Labs
Terraforming Mars older $19.99 5,194 71% 156k $3.1M (exactly $3,114,842) Artefacts Studio
Dune: Imperium older $22.99 3,806 94% 114k $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) Dire Wolf
Solium Infernum older $39.99 1,571 88% 47k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,729) League of Geeks
Spirit Island older $24.99 1,545 91% 46k $1.2M (exactly $1,158,286) Handelabra Games Inc.
A Game of Thrones: The Board Game - Digital Edition older $19.99 1,705 71% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,022,488) Dire Wolf
Warhammer Underworlds - Shadespire Edition (Classic) older $29.99 1,059 70% 32k $953k (exactly $952,782) Steel Sky Productions, Tin Man Games
Line War older $24.99 1,076 80% 32k $807k (exactly $806,677) Studio Centurion
Tiny Civilization older $1.99 2,134 92% 64k $127k (exactly $127,400) 喜人一个
Victory and Glory: Napoleon older $29.99 136 75% 4.1k $122k (exactly $122,359) Electric Games
Mr. President $19.99 162 75% 4.9k $97k (exactly $97,151) Exia Labs
Bonaparte - A Mechanized Revolution $24.99 72 68% 2.2k $54k (exactly $53,978) Studio Imugi
Tactical Annihilation $15.99 56 98% 1.7k $27k (exactly $26,863) B.G. Game Studio
Astro Protocol $11.99 66 93% 2.0k $24k (exactly $23,740) Null Vector Studios
SpaceCorp: 2025-2300AD $9.99 73 83% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) Logix Interactive
Epoch of Guardians $11.99 32 81% 960 $12k (exactly $11,510) 伊洛维游戏
Legacy of Sin: Ill-Boding $12.99 23 69% 690 $9.0k (exactly $8,963) Absolute Power Game Studio
Heroic Aegisio: Origins $7.99 27 77% 810 $6.5k (exactly $6,472) Vview Games
Shadow President $5.99 12 100% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) D. C. True
Haulin' Oats $9.99 7 100% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) Gramps Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.