Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + Space Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Sim Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Space Sim

Only 12 developers shipped a Space Sim Grand Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Riftborne, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 23 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper, while momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 23 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Space Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $150 → $323k → $12k → $1.6k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Space Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $8.4k (exactly $8,396)
Top 5% $26k (exactly $25,888)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 44
Announced 23
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 400% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy, Space Sim
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 197 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $900, 1 in 4 over $8.3k, 1 in 20 over $25k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 23 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
X4: Foundations older $49.99 25,257 79% 758k $38M (exactly $37,877,923) Egosoft
Sins of a Solar Empire®: Rebellion older $19.99 10,243 93% 307k $6.1M (exactly $6,142,727) Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment)
Starpoint Gemini Warlords older $34.99 3,076 72% 92k $3.2M (exactly $3,228,877) Little Green Men Games
Star Trek: Infinite older $29.99 3,030 41% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,726,091) Nimble Giant Entertainment
Dune: Imperium older $22.99 3,806 94% 114k $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) Dire Wolf
EarthX older $19.99 539 92% 16k $323k (exactly $323,238) Denis, Ry
Lord of Rigel older $19.99 113 69% 3.4k $68k (exactly $67,766) Rhombus Studios
Galactic Ruler older $19.99 104 47% 3.1k $62k (exactly $62,369) BattleGoat Studios
Auralux: Constellations older $9.99 153 79% 4.6k $46k (exactly $45,854) Grove Street Games, E McNeill
Gemini Wars older $9.99 141 32% 4.2k $42k (exactly $42,258) Camel 101
Riftborne · EA $7.99 108 91% 3.2k $26k (exactly $25,888) Pitio Productions
Deep Dark Forest $7.99 41 87% 1.2k $9.8k (exactly $9,828) pixiangames
Galactum Meridian · EA $19.99 14 14% 420 $8.4k (exactly $8,396) Hedra Games
New Stars $19.99 5 60% 150 $3.0k (exactly $2,998) adamjr
Stellar Industrialist $2.99 18 88% 540 $1.6k (exactly $1,615) PcZ Games
SunWars $9.99 3 66% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Bode
Infinite Evo TD $4.99 4 25% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Starchase Games
A Game About Creating The Universe $5.99 2 50% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Dream Dimension
GALAXY WARS Ⅱ $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) JIT Inc
Virtual Campus $0.99 1 0% 30 $30 (exactly $30) Virtual teacher

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.