Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Adventure

Of 34 developers who shipped an Adventure Grand Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 64 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $620, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 64 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper, while revenue is up 140% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 64 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $3.9k → $12k → $1.9k → $809 → $1.6k → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $624 (exactly $624)
Top 25% $1.9k (exactly $1,948)
Top 5% $72k (exactly $71,940)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 174
Announced 64
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy, Adventure; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action, Sports
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Cute, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 65% positive over 2,204 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $620, 1 in 4 over $1.9k, 1 in 20 over $71k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 41 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 64 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS™ Empire at War - Gold Pack older $19.99 36,153 97% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,680,954) Petroglyph
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ older $39.99 14,047 61% 421k $17M (exactly $16,852,186) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Total War: ATTILA older $19.99 26,918 82% 808k $16M (exactly $16,142,725) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
ENDLESS Legend™ older $29.99 14,413 83% 432k $13M (exactly $12,967,376) AMPLITUDE Studios
Total War: EMPIRE – Definitive Edition older $19.99 21,302 89% 639k $13M (exactly $12,774,809) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Age of Wonders III older $29.99 7,020 81% 211k $6.3M (exactly $6,315,894) Triumph Studios
Supreme Commander: Forged Alliance older $12.99 9,919 96% 298k $3.9M (exactly $3,865,434) Gas Powered Games
Sailing Era older $24.99 4,565 78% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,422,380) GY Games
Carrier Command 2 older $29.99 3,444 82% 103k $3.1M (exactly $3,098,567) Geometa
Oriental Empires older $29.99 2,584 80% 78k $2.3M (exactly $2,324,825) Shining Pixel Studios
Crown and Adventure $19.99 1,693 61% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,015,292) C3D Games
Kingdom Ascension $11.99 200 82% 6.0k $72k (exactly $71,940) RainRingStudio
Countryballs: Power Protocol $9.99 168 79% 5.0k $50k (exactly $50,350) KNK DEVELOP
Broken Alliance · EA $14.99 42 80% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) Placeholder Gameworks
EmberStride $29.99 12 91% 360 $11k (exactly $10,796) Sharkgame
Gold Defence $9.99 20 65% 600 $6.0k (exactly $5,994) Gamesforgames
The Armed Shadow $9.99 17 94% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Gamesforgames
Bastionforge $9.99 17 76% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Gamesforgames
Restart Mode $9.99 16 81% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) Gamesforgames
Climber Girl $7.99 19 36% 570 $4.6k (exactly $4,554) AlterLab Development

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.