Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Crafting

Only 15 developers shipped a Crafting Grand Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Knights of the Crusades, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×6.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 39 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.5 per shipper, while revenue is down 15% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 39 announced, ×6.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $183k → $898 → $5.4k → $449 → $4.3k → $3.5k → $416 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,499)
Top 5% $100k (exactly $99,550)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 53
Announced 39
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy, Crafting; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Base Building
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 644 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $450, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $99k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SpellForce: Conquest of Eo older $29.99 2,149 80% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,933,455) Owned by Gravity
Fantasy Map Simulator · EA older $7.99 4,190 89% 126k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,343) The Stranger
Medieval Kingdom Wars older $14.99 2,233 76% 67k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,180) Reverie World Studios
Floodland older $19.99 921 54% 28k $552k (exactly $552,324) Vile Monarch
Goblins of Elderstone older $19.99 305 69% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Outerdawn, Lost Goblin
Raiders! Forsaken Earth older $19.99 268 80% 8.0k $161k (exactly $160,720) Creative Storm Entertainment
Deadwater Saloon older $19.99 186 63% 5.6k $112k (exactly $111,544) Tanglefoot Games
Knights of the Crusades $19.99 166 69% 5.0k $100k (exactly $99,550) Reverie World Studios
An Ankou · EA older $4.99 604 67% 18k $90k (exactly $90,419) Alkemi
Idle Deepcore $6.99 365 85% 11k $77k (exactly $76,540) Bluehood Games
Post-Apo Builder $9.99 54 37% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) Septarian Games
Pharma R&D Manager $49.99 3 66% 90 $4.5k (exactly $4,499) Innopede GmbH
Artillery Tycoon · EA $7.99 18 94% 540 $4.3k (exactly $4,315) Awful Waffle Studio
Medievaly: Battle Simulator $8.99 13 76% 390 $3.5k (exactly $3,506) Steelkrill Studio
Government Contractors: Arms of Influence · EA $6.00 5 20% 150 $900 (exactly $900) Dan K.
Crazy Shipping $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) ADB Games
Ludus Manager $4.99 3 33% 90 $449 (exactly $449) WARSONG ENTERTAINMENT
Hearth & Shadow $0.99 14 100% 420 $416 (exactly $416) Ilya873

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.