Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Game Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Card Game

Only 17 developers shipped a Card Game Grand Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rogue Hex, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210. 30 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper, while revenue is down 65% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 30 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $3.4k → $13k → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $600 (exactly $600)
Top 25% $3.4k (exactly $3,352)
Top 5% $156k (exactly $155,922)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 59
Announced 30
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 27%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy, Card Game; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Battler, Strategy, Deckbuilding
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Hand-drawn
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 703 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $600, 1 in 4 over $3.3k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dune: Imperium older $22.99 3,806 94% 114k $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) Dire Wolf
Spirit Island older $24.99 1,545 91% 46k $1.2M (exactly $1,158,286) Handelabra Games Inc.
Warhammer Underworlds - Shadespire Edition (Classic) older $29.99 1,059 70% 32k $953k (exactly $952,782) Steel Sky Productions, Tin Man Games
Hexarchy older $19.99 1,231 83% 37k $738k (exactly $738,231) Main Tank Software
Rogue Hex $19.99 260 89% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Topstitch Games
Skyworld older $14.99 229 79% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Vertigo Games, Wolfdog Interactive
Worlds Upon The Wind $9.99 238 99% 7.1k $71k (exactly $71,329) Max Shawabkeh
Last Day of Rome older $11.99 162 49% 4.9k $58k (exactly $58,271) Hamsters
Hypnosis Card older $4.99 216 71% 6.5k $32k (exactly $32,335) Naku Kinoko
Lorenzo il Magnifico older $14.99 58 70% 1.7k $26k (exactly $26,083) Studio Clangore
Hypnosis Card 2 $12.99 65 78% 2.0k $25k (exactly $25,330) Naku Kinoko
Dictator Simulator: Gradnar $4.99 84 97% 2.5k $13k (exactly $12,575) GortagonGame
Grow Empire: Rome $3.99 28 64% 840 $3.4k (exactly $3,352) Games Station
Orbit Economica $24.99 3 66% 90 $2.2k (exactly $2,249) Phoenix Smith
Haulin' Oats $9.99 7 100% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) Gramps Games
Guess the Flag! $3.99 16 93% 480 $1.9k (exactly $1,915) Source Byte
Imperial Wager: The Shattered Crown of Augustus $19.99 1 0% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Ke Zhou
Dice Tech Dominion - Enter the Shadow Circuit $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) AUTeddy

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.