Do I ship it?

Games › Grand Strategy › Grand Strategy + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Arcade

Only 12 developers shipped an Arcade Grand Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Inflafrog: Collector's Edition, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 7 developers shipped in the last year and 22 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 22 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $148 → $779 → $416 → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $179 (exactly $179)
Top 25% $1.6k (exactly $1,615)
Top 5% $4.2k (exactly $4,192)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 62
Announced 22
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 92% positive over 78 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $180, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $4.1k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Attack on Toys 2021 · EA · $243k Royal Defense 2014 · $111k An Ankou 2023 · EA · $90k Skies above the Great War 2024 · $50k Suns of Wiraqocha 2023 · $9.6k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Attack on Toys · EA older $6.99 1,158 93% 35k $243k (exactly $242,833) N7T-GAMES
Royal Defense older $14.99 246 70% 7.4k $111k (exactly $110,626) Good Games, Creobit
An Ankou · EA older $4.99 604 67% 18k $90k (exactly $90,419) Alkemi
Skies above the Great War older $11.99 140 75% 4.2k $50k (exactly $50,358) Puntigames
Suns of Wiraqocha older $4.99 64 98% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) Alejandro Medina, Rafael Gonzalez-Otoya… (Alejandro Medina, Rafael Gonzalez-Otoya B., Adrian Blume)
Konkwest older $8.99 35 94% 1.1k $9.4k (exactly $9,440) Vincent Creative Technologies
COPS 2170 The Power of Law older $11.99 13 69% 390 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) GFI
Inflafrog: Collector's Edition $4.99 28 100% 840 $4.2k (exactly $4,192) Nice Cream
The Inseparables $9.99 11 100% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Gamesforgames
Gold Rush! 2 older $7.99 12 58% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) Sunlight Games
Stellar Industrialist $2.99 18 88% 540 $1.6k (exactly $1,615) PcZ Games
Trials Of Randoom $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) Teion Games
Timber Wars $12.99 2 100% 60 $779 (exactly $779) Priyam Jain
Pharaoh's Leap $0.99 14 85% 420 $416 (exactly $416) Gamesforgames
Super Silent Sensei $2.99 2 0% 60 $179 (exactly $179) Elmeryn Studios
Oblivion's Gate · EA $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) TTech Studio
PixelRulers $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Soulful Workshop
Hexa Merge $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Andre Nothof

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.