Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Grand Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Grand Strategy Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Grand Strategy

Of 53 developers who shipped a Grand Strategy Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×0.7 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $3.9M, ×2663 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 63 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 63 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Grand Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 53
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $52k → $13k → $5.0k → $2.2k → $3.2k → $1.1k → $719 (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Grand Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 53
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,639)
Top 5% $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204)
Developers, 2 yr 53
Released games 153
Announced 63
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Grand Strategy; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Economy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Realistic, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 36,495 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $3.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
X4: Foundations older $49.99 25,257 79% 758k $38M (exactly $37,877,923) Egosoft
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV older $59.99 13,086 62% 393k $24M (exactly $23,550,874) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII older $59.99 5,828 57% 175k $10M (exactly $10,488,652) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE $59.99 3,118 49% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Romance of the Three Kingdoms XI with Power Up Kit older $39.99 3,754 92% 113k $4.5M (exactly $4,503,674) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
NOBUNAGA'S AMBITION: Awakening older $59.99 2,320 74% 70k $4.2M (exactly $4,175,304) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
Solium Infernum older $39.99 1,571 88% 47k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,729) League of Geeks
NOBUNAGA'S AMBITION: Sphere of Influence - Ascension older $59.99 814 73% 24k $1.5M (exactly $1,464,956) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Horse Racing Manager · EA $24.99 208 88% 6.2k $156k (exactly $155,938) Sheep Meadow Road Games
Monarch : Medieval Remastered $11.99 365 80% 11k $131k (exactly $131,290) Mr.Lordy
Axis Football 2026 $19.99 115 75% 3.5k $69k (exactly $68,966) Axis Games
吾皇万岁 $4.99 422 68% 13k $63k (exactly $63,173) AI GAME STUDIO
Global Protocol: New World Order · EA $19.99 85 71% 2.6k $51k (exactly $50,974) Dorlion Interactive
Tennis Manager 25 $19.99 76 68% 2.3k $46k (exactly $45,577) Rebound
Sanguo's Ambition 4 :Three Kingdoms $9.99 101 68% 3.0k $30k (exactly $30,270) Youshen Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.