Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + Auto Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Auto Battler Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Auto Battler

Only 15 developers shipped an Auto Battler Grand Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Great Villainess: Strategy of Lily, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×0.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600. 20 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper, while revenue is down 50% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 20 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Auto Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4k → $750 → $72k
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Auto Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $5.1k (exactly $5,095)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,375,641)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 37
Announced 20
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Auto Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy, Auto Battler
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 2,218 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $5.0k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dominions 5 - Warriors of the Faith older $39.99 1,924 94% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,223) Illwinter Game Design
Dominions 6 - Rise of the Pantokrator older $44.99 1,686 90% 51k $2.3M (exactly $2,275,594) Illwinter Game Design
The Great Villainess: Strategy of Lily $29.99 1,529 85% 46k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,641) Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playgr… (Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playground)
Line War older $24.99 1,076 80% 32k $807k (exactly $806,677) Studio Centurion
Buggos older $9.99 1,204 88% 36k $361k (exactly $360,839) Intrepid Marmot
NationWar2:Chronicle $16.99 378 78% 11k $193k (exactly $192,667) Yiming
Age of Gladiators older $7.99 709 77% 21k $170k (exactly $169,947) Creative Storm Entertainment
Wooden Battles older $9.99 515 79% 15k $154k (exactly $154,346) SP Digital Arts Inc.
Kingdom Ascension $11.99 200 82% 6.0k $72k (exactly $71,940) RainRingStudio
ShemHaMephorash older $8.99 34 94% 1.0k $9.2k (exactly $9,170) SignTyche, Tyche's Bookshelf
Bastionforge $9.99 17 76% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Gamesforgames
Grow Empire: Rome $3.99 28 64% 840 $3.4k (exactly $3,352) Games Station
Khaldun: Text Based Strategy $4.99 22 95% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) SkyWolf
Loot of Idle $1.99 33 48% 990 $2.0k (exactly $1,970) DarkRook Interactive
War of Resistance $4.99 7 100% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) chenjd
ARB: Alien Races Battle · EA $10.00 3 33% 90 $900 (exactly $900) Raphael Tremblay
Nexus Wars · EA $24.99 1 0% 30 $750 (exactly $750) Ajion Arts

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.