Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy game?

Dark Fantasy

Of 2,096 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4,449 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $640k, ×1028 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 4,449 games are announced against 1,347 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 4,449 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,096
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $2.5k → $2.2k → $3.1k → $1.8k → $2.4k → $1.2k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,096
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,648)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $18,070)
Top 5% $645k (exactly $645,495)
Developers, 2 yr 2,096
Released games 5,556
Announced 4,449
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 572,416 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $640k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 993 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 4,449 games are announced against 1,347 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Dark Fantasy

142 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Dungeon Crawler + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.9k 379 devs
  2. RPG + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.9k 968 devs
  3. Auto Battler + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.9k 80 devs
  4. Co-op Campaign + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.9k 11 devs
  5. Level Editor + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.9k 11 devs
  6. Exploration + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.7k 517 devs
  7. Strategy RPG + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.7k 156 devs
  8. Multiple Endings + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.7k 287 devs
  9. Visual Novel + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.7k 234 devs
  10. Gun Customization + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.7k 22 devs
  11. Choices Matter + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.4k 355 devs
  12. Turn-Based Combat + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.4k 291 devs
  13. Choose Your Own Adventure + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.4k 163 devs
  14. Interactive Fiction + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.4k 146 devs
  15. Tactical RPG + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.4k 132 devs
  16. Resource Management + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.3k 114 devs
  17. Tower Defense + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.3k 80 devs
  18. 4X + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.3k 11 devs
  19. Class-Based + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.3k 94 devs
  20. Incremental + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.2k 79 devs
  21. FPS + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.2k 104 devs
  22. RTS + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.2k 40 devs
  23. Platformer + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.1k 184 devs
  24. Stealth + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.1k 60 devs
  25. Adventure + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.9k 1,028 devs
  26. Roguelite + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.9k 531 devs
  27. Roguelike + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.9k 538 devs
  28. Survival Horror + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.8k 121 devs
  29. Walking Simulator + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.8k 66 devs
  30. Turn-Based Strategy + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.7k 225 devs
  31. Deckbuilding + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.7k 167 devs
  32. Tactical + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.7k 159 devs
  33. Perma Death + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.7k 130 devs
  34. Top-Down Shooter + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.7k 70 devs
  35. Arena Shooter + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.7k 59 devs
  36. Action Roguelike + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.6k 393 devs
  37. Bullet Hell + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.6k 193 devs
  38. Dynamic Narration + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.6k 15 devs
  39. Grid-Based Movement + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.6k 49 devs
  40. Procedural Generation + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.6k 205 devs
  41. Boss Rush + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.6k 17 devs
  42. Action + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.5k 1,049 devs
  43. Life Sim + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.4k 22 devs
  44. 2D Platformer + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.3k 210 devs
  45. Physics + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.3k 76 devs
  46. Turn-Based Tactics + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.3k 223 devs
  47. Grand Strategy + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.3k 11 devs
  48. Strategy + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.2k 557 devs
  49. Combat + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.2k 537 devs
  50. Action-Adventure + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.2k 503 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Black Myth: Wukong 2024 · $1.6B ELDEN RING 2022 · $1.5B Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B DARK SOULS™ III 2016 · $500M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Black Myth: Wukong older $59.99 881,186 96% 26M $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) Game Science
ELDEN RING older $59.99 831,470 93% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) FromSoftware, Inc.
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition older $49.99 823,357 96% 25M $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) CD PROJEKT RED
DARK SOULS™ III older $59.99 278,034 94% 8.3M $500M (exactly $500,377,790) FromSoftware, Inc.
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition older $59.99 259,508 95% 7.8M $467M (exactly $467,036,548) FromSoftware, Inc.
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Hollow Knight older $14.99 502,960 96% 15M $226M (exactly $226,181,112) Team Cherry
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
WUCHANG: Fallen Feathers $49.99 44,865 58% 1.3M $67M (exactly $67,284,040) Leenzee
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
DOOM: The Dark Ages $49.99 32,209 88% 966k $48M (exactly $48,303,837) id Software
Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon $44.99 33,560 87% 1.0M $45M (exactly $45,295,932) Questline
Gothic 1 Remake $49.99 26,258 88% 788k $39M (exactly $39,379,123) Alkimia Interactive
The First Berserker: Khazan $59.99 21,049 85% 631k $38M (exactly $37,881,885) Neople
FINAL FANTASY XVI $49.99 24,065 78% 722k $36M (exactly $36,090,280) Square Enix
The Blood of Dawnwalker $69.99 15,789 86% 474k $33M (exactly $33,152,163) Rebel Wolves

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.