Do I ship it?

GamesMultiple EndingsMultiple Endings + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Multiple Endings game?

Multiple Endings + Dark Fantasy

Of 287 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Multiple Endings game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 615 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $440k, ×710 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 615 games are announced against 180 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 615 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Multiple Endings + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 287
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.2k → $3.2k → $5.1k → $5.4k → $4.3k → $3.0k → $1.3k (still earning) → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Multiple Endings + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 287
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,696)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $22,777)
Top 5% $446k (exactly $446,102)
Developers, 2 yr 287
Released games 708
Announced 615
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Multiple Endings; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Choices Matter
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 95,919 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $440k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 137 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 615 games are announced against 180 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Multiple Endings with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  2. + WuxiaFair11 devs · median $230k · 18 announced
  3. + Level EditorFair17 devs · median $8.1k · 23 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair32 devs · median $5.8k · 42 announced
  5. + SuperheroFair15 devs · median $4.5k · 22 announced
  6. + 4 Player LocalFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair37 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  8. + GamblingFair30 devs · median $1.8k · 42 announced
  9. + TriviaFair14 devs · median $1.7k · 15 announced
  10. + Score AttackFair40 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair176 devs · median $598 · 180 announced
  12. + Arena ShooterFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced

All 214 pairs on the Multiple Endings page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition older $49.99 823,357 96% 25M $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) CD PROJEKT RED
Hollow Knight older $14.99 502,960 96% 15M $226M (exactly $226,181,112) Team Cherry
Lies of P older $59.99 58,411 91% 1.8M $105M (exactly $105,122,277) NEOWIZ
The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings Enhanced Edition older $19.99 80,882 89% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,504,935) CD PROJEKT RED
Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon $44.99 33,560 87% 1.0M $45M (exactly $45,295,932) Questline
The Blood of Dawnwalker $69.99 15,789 86% 474k $33M (exactly $33,152,163) Rebel Wolves
ENDER LILIES: Quietus of the Knights older $24.99 43,092 93% 1.3M $32M (exactly $32,306,072) Live Wire, Adglobe
Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition older $29.99 28,721 85% 862k $26M (exactly $25,840,284) BioWare
The Witcher: Enhanced Edition Director's Cut older $9.99 81,712 89% 2.5M $24M (exactly $24,489,086) CD PROJEKT RED
暖雪 Warm Snow older $17.99 35,270 92% 1.1M $19M (exactly $19,035,219) BadMudStudio
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
BLACK SOULS $13.99 7,337 95% 220k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,339) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
BLACK SOULS II $13.99 5,277 97% 158k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,757) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
Cabernet $19.99 2,025 94% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,214,392) Party for Introverts
The Nameless: Slay Dragon $17.99 2,050 91% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) The Nameless Epic
The Life and Suffering of Prince Jerian $24.99 1,356 74% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,016,593) Schisma Games
DevilConnection $16.66 1,951 98% 59k $975k (exactly $975,110) ChaoGames
Is this Game Trying to Kill Me? $14.99 1,513 95% 45k $680k (exactly $680,396) Stately Snail

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.