Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelite › Roguelite + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Roguelite?

Roguelite + Dark Fantasy

Of 531 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,019 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $710k, ×1132 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 1,019 games are announced against 356 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 1,019 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 531
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $3.6k → $4.7k → $3.6k → $1.9k → $6.3k → $1.3k (still earning) → $839 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 531
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,948)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $21,136)
Top 5% $711k (exactly $710,813)
Developers, 2 yr 531
Released games 958
Announced 1,019
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Roguelite; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, RPG, Action Roguelike
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 141,007 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $710k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 188 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,019 games are announced against 356 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dead Cells 2018 · $117M Darkest Dungeon® 2016 · $106M Warhammer: Vermintide 2 2018 · $82M Vampire Survivors 2022 · $38M Darkest Dungeon® II 2023 · $29M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
Darkest Dungeon® older $24.99 140,790 91% 4.2M $106M (exactly $105,550,263) Red Hook Studios
Warhammer: Vermintide 2 older $29.99 91,013 84% 2.7M $82M (exactly $81,884,396) Fatshark
Vampire Survivors older $4.99 251,686 98% 7.6M $38M (exactly $37,677,394) poncle
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
暖雪 Warm Snow older $17.99 35,270 92% 1.1M $19M (exactly $19,035,219) BadMudStudio
Loop Hero older $14.99 33,816 92% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,207,055) Four Quarters
Ravenswatch $24.99 16,908 79% 507k $13M (exactly $12,675,928) Passtech Games
Soulstone Survivors $14.99 25,749 91% 772k $12M (exactly $11,579,325) Game Smithing Limited
Windblown · EA $24.99 9,066 88% 272k $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780) Motion Twin
Halls of Torment $6.66 30,752 95% 923k $6.1M (exactly $6,144,250) Chasing Carrots
The Spell Brigade $12.99 14,731 80% 442k $5.7M (exactly $5,740,671) Bolt Blaster Games
Mortal Sin $24.99 5,583 94% 167k $4.2M (exactly $4,185,575) Nikola Todorovic
The King is Watching $14.99 9,006 88% 270k $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) Hypnohead
Jotunnslayer: Hordes of Hel $14.99 7,318 82% 220k $3.3M (exactly $3,290,905) Games Farm, ARTillery
Cinderia · EA $17.99 4,763 88% 143k $2.6M (exactly $2,570,591) MyACG Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.