Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Dark Fantasy
Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Dark Fantasy
Of 234 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 346 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×345 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 346 games are announced against 137 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $629 (exactly $629) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.7k (exactly $2,696) |
| Top 25% | $18k (exactly $18,070) |
| Top 5% | $217k (exactly $216,755) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 234 |
| Released games | 626 |
| Announced | 346 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Dark Fantasy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 17,562 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 8 in 10 of the 134 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 346 games are announced against 137 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales 2018 · $9.4M 
The Life and Suffering of Sir Brante 2021 · $4.9M 
Scarlet Hollow 2021 · EA · $4.3M 
The Thaumaturge 2024 · $4.1M 
Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- The Prophecy of the Throne 2021 · $1.9M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales | older | $19.99 | 15,665 89% | 470k | $9.4M (exactly $9,394,300) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | The Life and Suffering of Sir Brante | older | $19.99 | 8,151 89% | 245k | $4.9M (exactly $4,888,155) | Sever, Schisma Games |
| | Scarlet Hollow | · EA older | $29.99 | 4,833 97% | 145k | $4.3M (exactly $4,348,250) | Black Tabby Games |
| | The Thaumaturge | older | $34.99 | 3,888 81% | 117k | $4.1M (exactly $4,081,234) | Fool's Theory |
| | Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- The Prophecy of the Throne | older | $59.99 | 1,042 87% | 31k | $1.9M (exactly $1,875,287) | Chime Corporation |
 | Roadwarden | older | $10.99 | 4,476 94% | 134k | $1.5M (exactly $1,475,737) | Moral Anxiety Studio |
 | Noel the Mortal Fate Complete Edition | older | $14.99 | 3,247 87% | 97k | $1.5M (exactly $1,460,176) | KANAWO |
 | Demons Roots | older | $19.99 | 2,275 93% | 68k | $1.4M (exactly $1,364,318) | Quick nail Aristocrat |
 | Nunholy | $7.99 | 5,150 88% | 155k | $1.2M (exactly $1,234,455) | Chowbie | |
 | Cabernet | $19.99 | 2,025 94% | 61k | $1.2M (exactly $1,214,392) | Party for Introverts | |
 | The Nameless: Slay Dragon | $17.99 | 2,050 91% | 62k | $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) | The Nameless Epic | |
 | Forbidden Solitaire | $15.99 | 2,245 96% | 67k | $1.1M (exactly $1,076,926) | Grey Alien Games, Night Signal Entertai… (Grey Alien Games, Night Signal Entertainment) | |
 | The Life and Suffering of Prince Jerian | $24.99 | 1,356 74% | 41k | $1.0M (exactly $1,016,593) | Schisma Games | |
 | DevilConnection | $16.66 | 1,951 98% | 59k | $975k (exactly $975,110) | ChaoGames | |
 | KAMITSUBAKI CITY REGENERATE | $34.99 | 494 93% | 15k | $519k (exactly $518,552) | KAMITSUBAKI STUDIO, orange | |
 | Corruption Town | · EA | $14.99 | 992 88% | 30k | $446k (exactly $446,102) | BoredBasmati |
 | Between Two Worlds | $14.99 | 760 82% | 23k | $342k (exactly $341,772) | Drooskati Games | |
 | Putrika 1st.cut:The Reason She Must Perish | $17.99 | 539 94% | 16k | $291k (exactly $290,898) | トトメトリ |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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