Do I ship it?

GamesGun CustomizationGun Customization + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Gun Customization game?

Gun Customization + Dark Fantasy

Of 22 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Gun Customization game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $35k, ×57 the market median. Revenue is up 160% on the market; 44 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 160% on the market, 44 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gun Customization + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $9.1k → $958 → $2.7k → $6.3k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gun Customization + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,695)
Top 25% $9.1k (exactly $9,109)
Top 5% $36k (exactly $35,664)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 43
Announced 44
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 160% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gun Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Gun Customization; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Perma Death, Roguelite, Action
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 779 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $9.1k, 1 in 20 over $35k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gun Customization with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Tower DefenseFair26 devs · median $958 · 32 announced
  2. + DystopianPoor odds16 devs · median $51k · 58 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds12 devs · median $25k · 44 announced
  4. + BuildingPoor odds13 devs · median $16k · 39 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds26 devs · median $14k · 55 announced
  6. + ModernPoor odds18 devs · median $14k · 38 announced
  7. + MilitaryPoor odds50 devs · median $13k · 126 announced
  8. + StealthPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds31 devs · median $11k · 92 announced
  10. + MechsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 32 announced
  11. + Resource ManagementPoor odds28 devs · median $11k · 71 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $9.1k · 64 announced

All 93 pairs on the Gun Customization page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
Anima : The Reign of Darkness older $11.99 613 69% 18k $220k (exactly $220,496) Redeev
EVERSLAUGHT · EA older $19.99 336 61% 10k $201k (exactly $201,499) MobX GmbH
Voidborn $12.99 349 81% 10k $136k (exactly $136,005) Xekvera
Call of Sentinels older $7.99 177 74% 5.3k $42k (exactly $42,427) A17 Games
REMEDIUM · EA older $17.99 68 66% 2.0k $37k (exactly $36,700) Sobaka Studio
Runehaven $9.99 119 91% 3.6k $36k (exactly $35,664) Cikoria Studio
Ghosts Keep Out $3.99 130 75% 3.9k $16k (exactly $15,561) Only Fun Games
Ascendant $9.99 47 70% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) Imagisphere
Type or Die $13.99 29 31% 870 $12k (exactly $12,171) Type or Die
Hell Survivors · EA $7.99 38 55% 1.1k $9.1k (exactly $9,109) Aerilon
ZIX · EA $9.99 28 78% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) Hidden IO
ALARIC $14.99 14 92% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Dominik Grigoras
Cloudbreaker $12.99 12 91% 360 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Ballast Games
Torch of Shadows $7.99 13 92% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) Acthera Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.