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Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Incremental game?
Incremental + Dark Fantasy
Of 79 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 149 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×244 the market median. Revenue is up 300% on the market; 149 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $538 (exactly $538) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.2k (exactly $2,246) |
| Top 25% | $33k (exactly $33,342) |
| Top 5% | $153k (exactly $152,929) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 79 |
| Released games | 170 |
| Announced | 149 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 300% on the market, supply 255% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Incremental
- effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
- Dark Fantasy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Incremental; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Idler, RPG, Simulation
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 11,859 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 149 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Incremental with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + OtomeStrong odds
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + FarmingFair
- + Dynamic NarrationFair
- + MiningFair
- + Souls-likeFair
- + Arena ShooterFair
- + Dating SimFair
- + UndergroundFair
- + LootFair
- + SupernaturalFair
Comparable games
Book of Demons 2018 · $6.0M 
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem 2026 · $1.2M 
Horripilant 2026 · $702k 
Lost2 2022 · $663k 
Path of Idle: Old Gods Rising 2026 · $348k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Book of Demons | older | $24.99 | 8,010 91% | 240k | $6.0M (exactly $6,005,097) | Thing Trunk |
| | Sir, We Have an Orc Problem | $9.99 | 4,123 86% | 124k | $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) | Mumpitz Games | |
| | Horripilant | $7.99 | 2,928 92% | 88k | $702k (exactly $701,842) | Alexandre Declos , Pas Game Studio | |
| | Lost2 | older | $15.99 | 1,382 81% | 41k | $663k (exactly $662,945) | DSGame |
| | Path of Idle: Old Gods Rising | $9.99 | 1,160 77% | 35k | $348k (exactly $347,652) | Small Mill, Small Mill | |
 | Kon's Lesson! | older | $9.99 | 560 88% | 17k | $168k (exactly $167,832) | Fox House |
 | Bones and Coins | $7.99 | 638 72% | 19k | $153k (exactly $152,929) | Troyd Games | |
 | Journey to Incrementalia | $4.99 | 894 86% | 27k | $134k (exactly $133,832) | Adam Travers | |
 | Earth Must Die | $15.99 | 238 85% | 7.1k | $114k (exactly $114,169) | Size Five Games | |
 | Loot Tycoon | · EA | $6.99 | 544 71% | 16k | $114k (exactly $114,077) | Parallel Portal |
 | Dismantling Workshop of Bio-Girl | $29.99 | 120 61% | 3.6k | $108k (exactly $107,964) | 渡里laboratory | |
 | Orc Incremental | $7.99 | 444 75% | 13k | $106k (exactly $106,427) | Nice Ride | |
 | Alice's Gaze | $3.99 | 770 91% | 23k | $92k (exactly $92,169) | Starmoon Cat |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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