Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Tower Defense?

Tower Defense + Dark Fantasy

Of 80 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Tower Defense in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 167 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×3.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1968 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 167 games are announced against 52 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 40% on the market, 167 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tower Defense + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 80
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $748 → $838 → $2.3k → $896 → $1.1k → $3.6k → $3.4k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tower Defense + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 80
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,338)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,841)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663)
Developers, 2 yr 80
Released games 151
Announced 167
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tower Defense
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tower Defense; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 30,155 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 167 games are announced against 52 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tower Defense with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DwarvesStrong odds10 devs · median $6.7k · 9 announced
  2. + MiningFair33 devs · median $6.3k · 45 announced
  3. + Survival HorrorFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 16 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 20 announced
  5. + TanksFair14 devs · median $1.5k · 13 announced
  6. + MechsFair24 devs · median $1.5k · 24 announced
  7. + IdlerFair108 devs · median $1.2k · 136 announced
  8. + PuzzleFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  9. + Gun CustomizationFair26 devs · median $958 · 32 announced
  10. + LogicFair40 devs · median $955 · 44 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterFair11 devs · median $899 · 12 announced
  12. + Psychological HorrorFair8 devs · median $897 · 8 announced

All 150 pairs on the Tower Defense page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Total War: WARHAMMER III 2022 · $189M The Last Spell 2023 · $9.9M Age of Darkness: Final Stand 2025 · $8.0M The King is Watching 2025 · $4.0M Nordhold 2025 · $1.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
Age of Darkness: Final Stand $27.99 9,486 74% 285k $8.0M (exactly $7,965,394) PlaySide
The King is Watching $14.99 9,006 88% 270k $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) Hypnohead
Nordhold $19.99 2,875 87% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) StunForge
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
Deathtrap older $19.99 1,858 84% 56k $1.1M (exactly $1,114,243) NeocoreGames
GemCraft - Chasing Shadows older $9.99 3,659 95% 110k $1.1M (exactly $1,096,602) Game in a Bottle
GemCraft - Frostborn Wrath older $12.99 2,691 88% 81k $1.0M (exactly $1,048,683) Game in a Bottle
The Incredible Adventures of Van Helsing II older $14.99 1,954 70% 59k $879k (exactly $878,714) NeocoreGames
DarkSwitch $34.99 714 77% 21k $749k (exactly $749,486) Cyber Temple
Crown of Greed $19.99 680 60% 20k $408k (exactly $407,796) BLUM Entertainment
Achilles: Survivor $8.99 1,454 81% 44k $392k (exactly $392,144) Dark Point Games
Sineus Arena Survivors $10.99 1,150 77% 35k $379k (exactly $379,155) Sineus Games
Ark of Charon $24.99 389 75% 12k $292k (exactly $291,633) Angoo Inc., SUNSOFT
The Ember Guardian $19.99 278 82% 8.3k $167k (exactly $166,717) Ratbit Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.