Games › 4X › 4X + Dark Fantasy
Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy 4X?
4X + Dark Fantasy
Only 11 developers shipped a Dark-Fantasy 4X in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Duel Corp., made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $990; 1 in 20 cleared $930k, ×626 the market median. Revenue is up 4430% on the market; 16 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $989 (exactly $989) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.3k (exactly $2,338) |
| Top 25% | $84k (exactly $83,958) |
| Top 5% | $938k (exactly $937,875) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 11 |
| Released games | 30 |
| Announced | 16 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 4430% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- 4X
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Dark Fantasy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X
- Price point
- $14.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 72% positive over 1,958 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $990. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M 
Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M 
Age of Wonders 4 2023 · $25M 
Thea: The Awakening 2015 · $2.0M 
Thea 2: The Shattering 2019 · $1.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Total War: WARHAMMER II | older | $59.99 | 85,134 92% | 2.6M | $153M (exactly $153,215,660) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER | older | $59.99 | 32,105 79% | 963k | $58M (exactly $57,779,368) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
| | Age of Wonders 4 | older | $49.99 | 16,899 82% | 507k | $25M (exactly $25,343,430) | Triumph Studios |
| | Thea: The Awakening | older | $19.99 | 3,318 87% | 100k | $2.0M (exactly $1,989,805) | MuHa Games |
| | Thea 2: The Shattering | older | $24.99 | 1,892 79% | 57k | $1.4M (exactly $1,418,432) | MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio |
 | Fantasy General II | older | $39.99 | 1,034 82% | 31k | $1.2M (exactly $1,240,490) | Owned by Gravity |
 | Master of Magic | older | $39.99 | 1,023 71% | 31k | $1.2M (exactly $1,227,293) | MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio |
 | A Game of Thrones: The Board Game - Digital Edition | older | $19.99 | 1,705 71% | 51k | $1.0M (exactly $1,022,488) | Dire Wolf |
 | Duel Corp. | · EA | $24.99 | 1,251 71% | 38k | $938k (exactly $937,875) | Dreameffect Entertainment |
 | Elemental: Reforged | $29.99 | 478 73% | 14k | $430k (exactly $430,057) | Stardock Entertainment | |
 | Shields of Loyalty | $19.99 | 140 77% | 4.2k | $84k (exactly $83,958) | Mosaic Mask Studio | |
 | Atre: Dominance Wars | · EA | $24.99 | 34 67% | 1.0k | $25k (exactly $25,490) | Ironward |
 | Thule | $18.99 | 6 50% | 180 | $3.4k (exactly $3,418) | Xeaker | |
 | Valdrax Beyond the Rift | · EA | $12.99 | 6 83% | 180 | $2.3k (exactly $2,338) | Ganea Ion |
 | DR4X | $0.99 | 34 88% | 1.0k | $1.0k (exactly $1,010) | Untrustedlife | |
 | Femdom hotel | $10.99 | 3 66% | 90 | $989 (exactly $989) | Femdom studio | |
 | Infinite Empire | · EA | $14.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $899 (exactly $899) | Better Tools LLC |
 | Shattered Lands (破碎之地) | $6.99 | 4 25% | 120 | $839 (exactly $839) | VoidStudio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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