Games › Strategy › Strategy + Dark Fantasy
Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Strategy game?
Strategy + Dark Fantasy
Of 557 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,210 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×521 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,210 games are announced against 400 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $267 (exactly $267) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) |
| Top 25% | $19k (exactly $19,228) |
| Top 5% | $327k (exactly $326,946) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 557 |
| Released games | 1,260 |
| Announced | 1,210 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 145% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Strategy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Dark Fantasy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Roguelike, Turn-Based Strategy
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 97,532 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 198 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,210 games are announced against 400 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + BaseballFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + WuxiaFair
- + FarmingFair
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + SubmarineFair
- + NavalFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Shop KeeperFair
- + HackingFair
Comparable games
Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B 
Total War: WARHAMMER III 2022 · $189M 
Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M 
Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ 2017 · $132M 
Darkest Dungeon® 2016 · $106M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Baldur's Gate 3 | older | $59.99 | 755,010 96% | 23M | $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) | Larian Studios |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER III | older | $59.99 | 104,822 71% | 3.1M | $189M (exactly $188,648,153) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER II | older | $59.99 | 85,134 92% | 2.6M | $153M (exactly $153,215,660) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ | older | $49.99 | 87,777 88% | 2.6M | $132M (exactly $131,639,167) | Monolith Productions |
| | Darkest Dungeon® | older | $24.99 | 140,790 91% | 4.2M | $106M (exactly $105,550,263) | Red Hook Studios |
 | Total War: WARHAMMER | older | $59.99 | 32,105 79% | 963k | $58M (exactly $57,779,368) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
 | Metaphor: ReFantazio | $69.99 | 25,224 89% | 757k | $53M (exactly $52,962,833) | ATLUS | |
 | Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition | older | $49.99 | 34,157 83% | 1.0M | $51M (exactly $51,225,253) | Owlcat Games |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader | older | $49.99 | 33,701 87% | 1.0M | $51M (exactly $50,541,390) | Owlcat Games |
 | Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition | older | $29.99 | 28,721 85% | 862k | $26M (exactly $25,840,284) | BioWare |
 | Sultan's Game | $24.99 | 25,061 93% | 752k | $19M (exactly $18,788,232) | Double Cross | |
 | Age of Darkness: Final Stand | $27.99 | 9,486 74% | 285k | $8.0M (exactly $7,965,394) | PlaySide | |
 | Diablo II: Resurrected – Infernal Edition | $39.99 | 5,855 86% | 176k | $7.0M (exactly $7,024,244) | Blizzard Entertainment, Inc. | |
 | 龙胤立志传 | $19.99 | 7,153 77% | 215k | $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) | TPP Studio | |
 | The King is Watching | $14.99 | 9,006 88% | 270k | $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) | Hypnohead | |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus II | $39.99 | 2,088 53% | 63k | $2.5M (exactly $2,504,974) | Bulwark Studios | |
 | Void War | $19.99 | 3,653 94% | 110k | $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) | Tundra | |
 | Aethermancer | · EA | $25.99 | 2,585 91% | 78k | $2.0M (exactly $2,015,524) | moi rai games |
 | Slots & Daggers | $7.99 | 7,421 93% | 223k | $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814) | Friedemann |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.