Do I ship it?

GamesPlatformerPlatformer + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Platformer?

Platformer + Dark Fantasy

Of 184 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 410 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $530k, ×858 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 410 games are announced against 105 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 410 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Platformer + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 184
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $1.9k → $2.8k → $3.9k → $3.4k → $1.2k → $1.8k (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Platformer + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 184
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,089)
Top 5% $539k (exactly $538,531)
Developers, 2 yr 184
Released games 574
Announced 410
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Platformer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 36,742 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $530k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 94 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 410 games are announced against 105 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  2. + PinballStrong odds10 devs · median $2.5k · 6 announced
  3. + Combat RacingFair28 devs · median $899 · 38 announced
  4. + FMVFair9 devs · median $899 · 10 announced
  5. + SimulationFair281 devs · median $628 · 235 announced
  6. + Grid-Based MovementFair23 devs · median $539 · 18 announced
  7. + AutomationFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  8. + Turn-Based TacticsLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $7.2k · 90 announced
  10. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds32 devs · median $6.5k · 90 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $5.8k · 38 announced
  12. + SkateboardingPoor odds14 devs · median $4.8k · 23 announced

All 206 pairs on the Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hollow Knight older $14.99 502,960 96% 15M $226M (exactly $226,181,112) Team Cherry
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
Blasphemous older $24.99 54,724 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $41,026,583) The Game Kitchen
Nine Sols older $29.99 40,138 94% 1.2M $36M (exactly $36,112,159) RedCandleGames
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night older $39.99 29,588 93% 888k $35M (exactly $35,496,724) ArtPlay
Blasphemous 2 older $29.99 16,808 91% 504k $15M (exactly $15,122,158) The Game Kitchen
ENDER MAGNOLIA: Bloom in the Mist $24.99 17,143 95% 514k $13M (exactly $12,852,107) Adglobe, Live Wire
Salt and Sanctuary older $17.99 20,081 89% 602k $11M (exactly $10,837,716) Ska Studios
Alice: Madness Returns older $9.99 27,795 90% 834k $8.3M (exactly $8,330,162) Spicy Horse Games
Mina the Hollower $19.99 7,562 88% 227k $4.5M (exactly $4,534,931) Yacht Club Games
Mandragora: Whispers of the Witch Tree $39.99 3,026 75% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Primal Game Studio
Legacy of Kain™ Soul Reaver 1&2 Remastered $29.99 3,042 90% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,736,887) Aspyr, Crystal Dynamics
AWAKEN - Astral Blade $19.99 1,121 82% 34k $672k (exactly $672,264) Dark Pigeon Games
Bloodthief $19.99 1,017 95% 31k $610k (exactly $609,895) Blargis
The Devil Within: Satgat $24.99 795 78% 24k $596k (exactly $596,012) Newcore Games
Voidwrought $19.99 936 77% 28k $561k (exactly $561,319) Powersnake
JUMP KING QUEST $14.99 1,202 88% 36k $541k (exactly $540,539) Nexile
Shady Knight $19.99 898 93% 27k $539k (exactly $538,531) Alexey 'cptnsigh'

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.