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Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Bullet Hell?
Bullet Hell + Dark Fantasy
Of 193 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Bullet Hell in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 292 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $520k, ×830 the market median. Revenue is up 360% on the market; 292 games are announced against 115 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.6k (exactly $1,647) |
| Top 25% | $13k (exactly $12,596) |
| Top 5% | $521k (exactly $521,267) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 193 |
| Released games | 403 |
| Announced | 292 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 360% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Bullet Hell
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Dark Fantasy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Bullet Hell; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Roguelite
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 84,065 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 84 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 292 games are announced against 115 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Bullet Hell with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SuperheroStrong odds
- + FaithFair
- + VampiresFair
- + Creature CollectorFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + PiratesFair
- + CatsFair
- + HackingFair
- + Time ManagementFair
- + Card BattlerFair
- + DemonsFair
- + Naval CombatFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | NieR Replicant™ ver.1.22474487139... | older | $59.99 | 21,493 88% | 645k | $39M (exactly $38,680,952) | Square Enix, Toylogic Inc. |
| | Vampire Survivors | older | $4.99 | 251,686 98% | 7.6M | $38M (exactly $37,677,394) | poncle |
| | Soulstone Survivors | $14.99 | 25,749 91% | 772k | $12M (exactly $11,579,325) | Game Smithing Limited | |
| | Halls of Torment | $6.66 | 30,752 95% | 923k | $6.1M (exactly $6,144,250) | Chasing Carrots | |
| | The Spell Brigade | $12.99 | 14,731 80% | 442k | $5.7M (exactly $5,740,671) | Bolt Blaster Games | |
| | Death Must Die | · EA older | $6.99 | 20,937 90% | 628k | $4.4M (exactly $4,390,489) | Realm Archive |
| | 20 Minutes Till Dawn | older | $4.99 | 27,872 90% | 836k | $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) | flanne |
| | Project Warlock | older | $12.00 | 4,691 87% | 141k | $1.7M (exactly $1,688,760) | Buckshot Software |
| | KILL KNIGHT | $14.99 | 1,804 93% | 54k | $811k (exactly $811,259) | PlaySide | |
| | Conquest Dark | · EA | $9.99 | 2,530 89% | 76k | $758k (exactly $758,241) | Eldritch Sword Games |
| | GOD FORSAKEN | $13.99 | 1,728 67% | 52k | $725k (exactly $725,242) | insight studio | |
| | Bloodshed | $12.99 | 1,824 84% | 55k | $711k (exactly $710,813) | com8com1 Software | |
| | Arms of God | · EA | $11.50 | 1,871 88% | 56k | $645k (exactly $645,495) | Dark Jay Studio |
| | Hell Maiden | · EA | $9.99 | 1,834 90% | 55k | $550k (exactly $549,650) | AstralShift |
| | TouHou Makuka Sai ~ Fantastic Danmaku Festival Part III | $13.99 | 1,242 90% | 37k | $521k (exactly $521,267) | 东方幕华祭制作组 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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