Do I ship it?

GamesPhysicsPhysics + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Physics game?

Physics + Dark Fantasy

Of 76 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 114 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1968 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 114 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 114 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 76
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $3.1k → $5.1k → $3.0k → $8.4k → $299 → $1.2k (still earning) → $7.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 76
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,319)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,474)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663)
Developers, 2 yr 76
Released games 157
Announced 114
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 55,245 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 114 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Soulstone Survivors $14.99 25,749 91% 772k $12M (exactly $11,579,325) Game Smithing Limited
Exanima · EA older $14.99 12,684 80% 381k $5.7M (exactly $5,703,995) Bare Mettle Entertainment
Fatekeeper · EA $9.99 10,605 80% 318k $3.2M (exactly $3,178,318) Paraglacial
Hellsplit: Arena older $24.99 3,735 83% 112k $2.8M (exactly $2,800,130) Deep Type Games
YAPYAP $9.99 8,385 83% 252k $2.5M (exactly $2,512,984) Maison Bap
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
Source of Madness older $19.99 1,410 69% 42k $846k (exactly $845,577) Carry Castle
Grimlord $29.99 927 78% 28k $834k (exactly $834,022) Metalcat Interactive Co.,Ltd
Waltz of the Wizard older $19.99 902 90% 27k $541k (exactly $540,929) Aldin Dynamics
Teslagrad older $9.99 1,709 83% 51k $512k (exactly $512,187) Rain Games
Trench Tales · EA $24.99 601 69% 18k $451k (exactly $450,570) Talking Drums
Idols of Ash $2.99 3,352 97% 101k $301k (exactly $300,674) Leafy Games
The Adventures of Sir Kicksalot $9.99 999 98% 30k $299k (exactly $299,400) Stéphane Le Roy
Dungeon Bodega Simulator $9.99 320 98% 9.6k $96k (exactly $95,904) Alien Fruit
Cult of PiN $14.99 184 77% 5.5k $83k (exactly $82,745) KennyMakesGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.