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Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Physics game?
Physics + Dark Fantasy
Of 76 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 114 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1968 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 114 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $180 (exactly $180) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,319) |
| Top 25% | $17k (exactly $17,474) |
| Top 5% | $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 76 |
| Released games | 157 |
| Announced | 114 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
- Dark Fantasy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 55,245 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 114 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Soulstone Survivors | $14.99 | 25,749 91% | 772k | $12M (exactly $11,579,325) | Game Smithing Limited | |
| | Exanima | · EA older | $14.99 | 12,684 80% | 381k | $5.7M (exactly $5,703,995) | Bare Mettle Entertainment |
| | Fatekeeper | · EA | $9.99 | 10,605 80% | 318k | $3.2M (exactly $3,178,318) | Paraglacial |
| | Hellsplit: Arena | older | $24.99 | 3,735 83% | 112k | $2.8M (exactly $2,800,130) | Deep Type Games |
| | YAPYAP | $9.99 | 8,385 83% | 252k | $2.5M (exactly $2,512,984) | Maison Bap | |
| | Sir, We Have an Orc Problem | $9.99 | 4,123 86% | 124k | $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) | Mumpitz Games | |
| | Source of Madness | older | $19.99 | 1,410 69% | 42k | $846k (exactly $845,577) | Carry Castle |
| | Grimlord | $29.99 | 927 78% | 28k | $834k (exactly $834,022) | Metalcat Interactive Co.,Ltd | |
| | Waltz of the Wizard | older | $19.99 | 902 90% | 27k | $541k (exactly $540,929) | Aldin Dynamics |
| | Teslagrad | older | $9.99 | 1,709 83% | 51k | $512k (exactly $512,187) | Rain Games |
| | Trench Tales | · EA | $24.99 | 601 69% | 18k | $451k (exactly $450,570) | Talking Drums |
| | Idols of Ash | $2.99 | 3,352 97% | 101k | $301k (exactly $300,674) | Leafy Games | |
| | The Adventures of Sir Kicksalot | $9.99 | 999 98% | 30k | $299k (exactly $299,400) | Stéphane Le Roy | |
| | Dungeon Bodega Simulator | $9.99 | 320 98% | 9.6k | $96k (exactly $95,904) | Alien Fruit | |
| | Cult of PiN | $14.99 | 184 77% | 5.5k | $83k (exactly $82,745) | KennyMakesGames |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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