Do I ship it?

Games › Action Roguelike › Action Roguelike + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Dark Fantasy

Of 393 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 741 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×1207 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 741 games are announced against 248 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 741 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 393
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $3.1k → $4.0k → $3.1k → $1.7k → $1.8k → $1.7k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 393
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,648)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,086)
Top 5% $758k (exactly $758,241)
Developers, 2 yr 393
Released games 772
Announced 741
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.49

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action Roguelike; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$7.49 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $7.49.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 140,386 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $750k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 162 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 741 games are announced against 248 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dead Cells 2018 · $117M Vampire Survivors 2022 · $38M Witchfire 2024 · EA · $21M 暖雪 Warm Snow 2022 · $19M Ravenswatch 2024 · $13M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
Vampire Survivors older $4.99 251,686 98% 7.6M $38M (exactly $37,677,394) poncle
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
暖雪 Warm Snow older $17.99 35,270 92% 1.1M $19M (exactly $19,035,219) BadMudStudio
Ravenswatch $24.99 16,908 79% 507k $13M (exactly $12,675,928) Passtech Games
Soulstone Survivors $14.99 25,749 91% 772k $12M (exactly $11,579,325) Game Smithing Limited
Windblown · EA $24.99 9,066 88% 272k $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780) Motion Twin
Halls of Torment $6.66 30,752 95% 923k $6.1M (exactly $6,144,250) Chasing Carrots
The Spell Brigade $12.99 14,731 80% 442k $5.7M (exactly $5,740,671) Bolt Blaster Games
Exanima · EA older $14.99 12,684 80% 381k $5.7M (exactly $5,703,995) Bare Mettle Entertainment
Mortal Sin $24.99 5,583 94% 167k $4.2M (exactly $4,185,575) Nikola Todorovic
Jotunnslayer: Hordes of Hel $14.99 7,318 82% 220k $3.3M (exactly $3,290,905) Games Farm, ARTillery
Cinderia · EA $17.99 4,763 88% 143k $2.6M (exactly $2,570,591) MyACG Studio
YAPYAP $9.99 8,385 83% 252k $2.5M (exactly $2,512,984) Maison Bap

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.