Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Dark Fantasy

Of 223 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 485 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×368 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 485 games are announced against 157 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 485 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 223
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $40k → $3.1k → $4.0k → $4.3k → $1.0k → $3.6k → $899 (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 223
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $28,354)
Top 5% $231k (exactly $231,215)
Developers, 2 yr 223
Released games 518
Announced 485
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Combat, Strategy
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 38,884 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 84 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 485 games are announced against 157 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters older $44.99 11,426 76% 343k $15M (exactly $15,421,672) Complex Games
Loop Hero older $14.99 33,816 92% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,207,055) Four Quarters
Gloomhaven older $34.99 13,628 82% 409k $14M (exactly $14,305,312) Flaming Fowl Studios, Saber Interactive
Mutant Year Zero: Road to Eden older $34.99 13,305 89% 399k $14M (exactly $13,966,258) The Bearded Ladies
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
King Arthur: Knight's Tale older $44.99 6,722 83% 202k $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) NeocoreGames
Iratus: Lord of the Dead older $29.99 7,206 84% 216k $6.5M (exactly $6,483,238) Unfrozen
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus II $39.99 2,088 53% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,504,974) Bulwark Studios
BLACK SOULS II $13.99 5,277 97% 158k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,757) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
Frosthaven · EA $39.99 814 72% 24k $977k (exactly $976,556) Snapshot Games Inc.
Lost Eidolons: Veil of the Witch $24.99 1,293 81% 39k $969k (exactly $969,362) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Death Howl $19.99 1,301 92% 39k $780k (exactly $780,210) The Outer Zone
New Arc Line · EA $24.99 687 68% 21k $515k (exactly $515,044) Dreamate
Shroom and Gloom · EA $14.99 977 91% 29k $439k (exactly $439,357) Team Lazerbeam
Wretch: Divine Ascent $14.99 975 75% 29k $438k (exactly $438,458) Ogopogo
BRIGANDINE ABYSS $49.99 248 35% 7.4k $372k (exactly $371,926) Adglobe

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.