Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › CRPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a CRPG?

CRPG

Of 564 developers who shipped a CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,002 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×1.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $600k, ×402 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 1,002 games are announced against 320 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 1,002 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 564
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.8k → $3.8k → $2.1k → $1.9k → $3.1k → $1.9k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 564
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.0k (exactly $1,998)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $23,384)
Top 5% $602k (exactly $602,305)
Developers, 2 yr 564
Released games 1,837
Announced 1,002
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 117,727 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $600k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 328 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,002 games are announced against 320 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with CRPG

91 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. CRPG + Loot Poor odds $2.1k 30 devs
  2. CRPG + Board Game Poor odds $2.1k 9 devs
  3. CRPG + Puzzle Poor odds $2.1k 50 devs
  4. CRPG + Procedural Generation Poor odds $2.0k 25 devs
  5. CRPG + Exploration Poor odds $1.9k 180 devs
  6. CRPG + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $1.9k 95 devs
  7. Immersive Sim + CRPG Poor odds $1.8k 54 devs
  8. CRPG + Action Poor odds $1.8k 88 devs
  9. Action RPG + CRPG Poor odds $1.6k 131 devs
  10. CRPG + Collectathon Poor odds $1.5k 11 devs
  11. CRPG + Walking Simulator Poor odds $1.3k 12 devs
  12. CRPG + Simulation Poor odds $1.2k 133 devs
  13. CRPG + PvE Poor odds $1.2k 61 devs
  14. CRPG + Dynamic Narration Poor odds $1.2k 15 devs
  15. PvP + CRPG Poor odds $1.2k 13 devs
  16. CRPG + Perma Death Poor odds $1.2k 21 devs
  17. CRPG + Hidden Object Poor odds $1.0k 19 devs
  18. CRPG + Swordplay Poor odds $1.0k 14 devs
  19. CRPG + Investigation Poor odds $959 17 devs
  20. CRPG + Life Sim Poor odds $899 43 devs
  21. CRPG + Mystery Dungeon Poor odds $809 24 devs
  22. CRPG + Action-Adventure Poor odds $719 74 devs
  23. CRPG + Logic Poor odds $629 17 devs
  24. CRPG + Survival Poor odds $539 45 devs
  25. CRPG + 3D Platformer Poor odds $539 24 devs
  26. CRPG + Puzzle Platformer Poor odds $525 11 devs
  27. CRPG + Time Management Poor odds $479 23 devs
  28. CRPG + Word Game Poor odds $298 35 devs
  29. CRPG + Action Roguelike Poor odds $267 13 devs
  30. CRPG + RTS Dead $20k 10 devs
  31. CRPG + Wargame Dead $4.0k 7 devs
  32. MMORPG + CRPG Dead $3.0k 3 devs
  33. CRPG + Sports Dead $1.8k 8 devs
  34. CRPG + Farming Sim Dead $1.5k 9 devs
  35. CRPG + Shooter Dead $959 4 devs
  36. CRPG + Survival Horror Dead $719 12 devs
  37. 3D Fighter + CRPG Dead $539 4 devs
  38. CRPG + Racing Dead $180 5 devs
  39. CRPG + Arcade Dead $179 13 devs
  40. CRPG + Platformer Dead $150 9 devs
  41. CRPG + Real Time Tactics Dead $90 11 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition 2017 · $244M Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019 · $142M Dragon Age™: The Veilguard 2024 · $74M Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition 2021 · $51M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut older $39.99 118,124 92% 3.5M $142M (exactly $141,713,363) ZA/UM
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition older $49.99 34,157 83% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,225,253) Owlcat Games
Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader older $49.99 33,701 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,541,390) Owlcat Games
Gujian3(古剑奇谭三) older $29.99 40,829 85% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,733,851) 上海烛龙信息科技有限公司, Aurogon Shanghai
Divinity: Original Sin - Enhanced Edition older $39.99 27,485 88% 825k $33M (exactly $32,973,754) Larian Studios
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
Big Ambitions $25.99 14,003 92% 420k $11M (exactly $10,918,139) Hovgaard Games
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Drova - Forsaken Kin $24.99 9,455 93% 284k $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414) Just2D
Esoteric Ebb $24.99 8,719 95% 262k $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) Christoffer Bodegård
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
Solasta II · EA $39.99 2,931 75% 88k $3.5M (exactly $3,516,321) Tactical Adventures
ZERO PARADES: For Dead Spies $39.99 2,911 83% 87k $3.5M (exactly $3,492,327) ZA/UM
Romantic Escapades $19.99 5,587 94% 168k $3.4M (exactly $3,350,524) 蠑螈

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.