Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Swordplay

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Swordplay CRPG?

CRPG + Swordplay

Only 14 developers shipped a Swordplay CRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Alaloth: Champions of The Four Kingdoms, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×0.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480. 25 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper, while revenue is down 20% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 25 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Swordplay
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $629 → $4.3k → $1.7k → $480 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Swordplay: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $6.1k (exactly $6,110)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,636,482)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 45
Announced 25
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Swordplay
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 3,834 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $6.1k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 6 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Alaloth: Champions of The Four Kingdoms $34.99 1,559 72% 47k $1.6M (exactly $1,636,482) Gamera Interactive
Psychic Kung Fu Master $19.99 1,723 60% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,033,283) 金十四工作室
Robber Knight · EA older $39.99 284 64% 8.5k $341k (exactly $340,715) Sartorian
Ancient Kingdoms · EA $15.99 473 86% 14k $227k (exactly $226,898) Ancient Pixels
1428: Shadows over Silesia older $19.99 201 72% 6.0k $121k (exactly $120,540) KUBI Games
Sea Dogs: City of Abandoned Ships older $7.99 245 76% 7.4k $59k (exactly $58,726) Akella
Sea Dogs: Caribbean Tales older $11.99 127 62% 3.8k $46k (exactly $45,682) Akella
Avalom: Ancestral Heroes older $17.99 72 62% 2.2k $39k (exactly $38,858) WAGNER ROCHA
浮世万千之前世今生 older $10.99 104 74% 3.1k $34k (exactly $34,289) 飞天大胖喵
Heads Will Roll older $4.99 165 77% 5.0k $25k (exactly $24,700) 1917 Studios
鸿运修仙传 $5.99 34 76% 1.0k $6.1k (exactly $6,110) 玉米工作室
Trap for the Heir $8.99 21 90% 630 $5.7k (exactly $5,664) MariLuzaria
Ortho Blaze $13.99 4 25% 120 $1.7k (exactly $1,679) Paracelsus Team
懒人也江湖 · EA $4.99 7 57% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) 恒睿游戏
Last Stronghold $3.99 8 62% 240 $958 (exactly $958) skR1me
Dark Age Gladiator $15.99 1 0% 30 $480 (exactly $480) Rotacat Studio
Eternal Price: Whispers of Mystery · EA $3.99 4 25% 120 $479 (exactly $479) 逐梦工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.