Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Real Time Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Real Time Tactics CRPG?

CRPG + Real Time Tactics

Only 11 developers shipped a Real Time Tactics CRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Age of Reforging: The Freelands, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×7.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $90 against a market of $1.5k. 23 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 23 announced, ×7.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Real Time Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $11k → $270 → $3.0k
Outcomes for CRPG + Real Time Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $90 (exactly $90)
Top 25% $4.0k (exactly $4,042)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 38
Announced 23
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 65% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Real Time Tactics
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 71% positive over 3,383 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $90, 1 in 4 over $4.0k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Blackthorn Arena older $24.99 3,477 69% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,606,707) PersonaeGame Studio
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
Tower of Time older $24.99 2,322 82% 70k $1.7M (exactly $1,740,803) Event Horizon
Dark Envoy older $29.99 783 69% 23k $704k (exactly $704,465) Event Horizon
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio
Dwerve older $19.99 426 70% 13k $255k (exactly $255,472) Half Human Games
Bahamut2-dragon's bride older $9.99 584 97% 18k $175k (exactly $175,025) 王韋
巴哈姆特1-REMAKE(BAHAMUT1-REMAKE) $9.99 170 95% 5.1k $51k (exactly $50,949) 王韋
Cyber Ops older $14.99 108 42% 3.2k $49k (exactly $48,568) Octeto Studios
Adventure Academia: The Fractured Continent older $39.99 34 26% 1.0k $41k (exactly $40,790) ACQUIRE Corp.
Warlordocracy $4.99 27 96% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) Brian J. Lancaster, Laughing Coyote Sof… (Brian J. Lancaster, Laughing Coyote Software)
Grand Fantasy Heroes $9.99 10 70% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) R J L Jones
Desert Mercenary corps $8.99 1 100% 30 $270 (exactly $270) CXCY CO.,LTD
仙途 $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) EighteenPluser
Knight Legion: Rpg Strategy $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Manushart
Dimensional illusion $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) pullluo
破法神谕 $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) ShenRui

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.