Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Life Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Life Sim CRPG?

CRPG + Life Sim

Of 43 developers who shipped a Life Sim CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 84 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270. 84 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper, while revenue is down 95% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 84 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Life Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $22k → $26k → $2.2k → $56k → $629 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Life Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $24,068)
Top 5% $248k (exactly $248,173)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 104
Announced 84
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Life Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Simulation, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 21,657 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $900, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 7 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 84 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Big Ambitions $25.99 14,003 92% 420k $11M (exactly $10,918,139) Hovgaard Games
Chinese Online Game older $9.99 6,610 82% 198k $2.0M (exactly $1,981,017) 648工作室
Immortal Life older $16.99 3,853 79% 116k $2.0M (exactly $1,963,874) YiFang Studio
Sword and Fairy Inn 2 older $19.99 2,013 49% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,207,196) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
Handyman Fantasy $7.99 1,607 95% 48k $385k (exactly $385,198) SupaShinKen Studio
Your Mom $1.99 4,157 95% 125k $248k (exactly $248,173) Mom Game
High School Odyssey older $8.99 591 92% 18k $159k (exactly $159,393) 傲雪小组
Princess Maker 2 Regeneration older $39.99 129 58% 3.9k $155k (exactly $154,761) Bliss Brain, Monkey Craft
Monarch : Medieval Remastered $11.99 365 80% 11k $131k (exactly $131,290) Mr.Lordy
Wishful Journey:Love Across Time older $9.99 426 88% 13k $128k (exactly $127,672) Hillhouse Holdings Limited
这个CEO我当定了! $7.99 462 82% 14k $111k (exactly $110,741) 叁石肆两
The Next Journey Of Life $12.99 147 63% 4.4k $57k (exactly $57,286) FOREVER GAME
Pact Between Us $6.99 267 86% 8.0k $56k (exactly $55,990) MYSTERY CROWN
Song's Fantasy $7.99 229 55% 6.9k $55k (exactly $54,891) 南十字座工作室
Immortal Farmer: System’s Mandate · EA $4.99 297 68% 8.9k $44k (exactly $44,461) oyogame
Herbals tycoon · EA $9.99 123 76% 3.7k $37k (exactly $36,863) Orange Paper Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.