Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Survival

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Survival CRPG?

CRPG + Survival

Of 45 developers who shipped a Survival CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 85 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300. 85 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper, while revenue is down 65% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 85 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Survival
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.0k → $599 → $1.5k → $2.1k → $5.8k → $1.5k → $314 (still earning) → $76 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Survival: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $5.8k (exactly $5,838)
Top 5% $144k (exactly $143,957)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 125
Announced 85
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Survival; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 13,581 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $540, 1 in 4 over $5.8k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 85 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Pathologic 2 older $34.99 9,554 92% 287k $10M (exactly $10,028,834) Ice-Pick Lodge
Tainted Grail: Conquest older $19.99 7,589 90% 228k $4.6M (exactly $4,551,123) Questline
ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game older $14.99 9,991 84% 300k $4.5M (exactly $4,492,953) AtomTeam
Wasteland 2: Director's Cut older $29.99 4,664 82% 140k $4.2M (exactly $4,196,201) inXile Entertainment
Encased: A Sci-Fi Post-Apocalyptic RPG older $29.99 4,193 77% 126k $3.8M (exactly $3,772,442) Dark Crystal Games
ATOM RPG Trudograd older $10.99 3,976 83% 119k $1.3M (exactly $1,310,887) AtomTeam
Expeditions: Conquistador older $19.99 1,228 77% 37k $736k (exactly $736,432) Logic Artists
The Doors of Trithius · EA older $14.99 973 93% 29k $438k (exactly $437,558) Jake Donkersgoed
Wanted Raccoon · EA older $16.99 660 72% 20k $336k (exactly $336,402) MAD Sprouts
Escape The Mad Empire · EA $17.99 406 88% 12k $219k (exactly $219,118) XperimentalZ Games
硬币与仙人掌 (Coins & Wishpalm) $13.99 343 77% 10k $144k (exactly $143,957) Moshow Games
Border Town $14.99 253 77% 7.6k $114k (exactly $113,774) GoHoGames
PuPu's Adventure Park $14.99 130 64% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,461) 西梅树工作室
Abyss Of Pleasure $11.80 139 88% 4.2k $49k (exactly $49,206) Jpegsama
Immortal Farmer: System’s Mandate · EA $4.99 297 68% 8.9k $44k (exactly $44,461) oyogame
Rust of Steel $10.99 67 65% 2.0k $22k (exactly $22,090) Fortress13 Game Studio
Three Kingdoms Part One: Battle of Zhuo County $14.99 30 60% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) JiMoYou
Phantom Tower · EA $12.99 24 75% 720 $9.4k (exactly $9,353) Horien Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.