Do I ship it?

Games › CRPG › CRPG + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon CRPG?

CRPG + Mystery Dungeon

Of 24 developers who shipped a Mystery Dungeon CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270. Revenue is down 40% on the market, with 19 games announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 19 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $21k → $1.2k → $809 → $298 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $809 (exactly $809)
Top 25% $2.1k (exactly $2,100)
Top 5% $58k (exactly $58,461)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 68
Announced 19
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Mystery Dungeon; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Strategy RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Comic Book
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 728 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $810, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $58k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

FANTASIAN Neo Dimension 2024 · $750k Dungeon Dreams 2 2024 · $125k Caves of Lore 2023 · $122k Sorcery Saga: Curse of the Great Curry God 2018 · $61k PuPu's Adventure Park 2025 · $58k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FANTASIAN Neo Dimension $49.99 500 76% 15k $750k (exactly $749,850) Mistwalker Corporation
Dungeon Dreams 2 older $19.99 209 90% 6.3k $125k (exactly $125,337) DDreams Games
Caves of Lore older $9.99 408 93% 12k $122k (exactly $122,278) by Mike Robins
Sorcery Saga: Curse of the Great Curry God older $19.99 102 64% 3.1k $61k (exactly $61,169) Idea Factory
PuPu's Adventure Park $14.99 130 64% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,461) 西梅树工作室
Dragonero $19.99 38 68% 1.1k $23k (exactly $22,789) Operaludica
Yuuna and the Haunted Hot Springs The Thrilling Steamy Maze Kiwami older $29.99 23 56% 690 $21k (exactly $20,693) FURYU CORPORATION
Eclipse older $2.99 173 68% 5.2k $16k (exactly $15,518) MadRock
Deep Despair 2 older $2.99 88 73% 2.6k $7.9k (exactly $7,894) BekkerDev Studio
Dawn of Kagura: Maika's Story - The Dragon's Wrath older $19.99 10 100% 300 $6.0k (exactly $5,997) Debonosu Works
Card Rogue $4.99 22 63% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Game Tsukuru Kun
Fantasy Classic: Dungeon Crawler · EA $18.99 5 80% 150 $2.8k (exactly $2,848) Eternal Play Office
SaveShe $69.99 1 100% 30 $2.1k (exactly $2,100) shibahuax
Album Corvus $12.99 5 80% 150 $1.9k (exactly $1,948) Devil's Dozen Games
Verfall $6.99 7 57% 210 $1.5k (exactly $1,468) Hoffnung Haydn
The Broken Ceiling $2.99 16 100% 480 $1.4k (exactly $1,435) Iron Octopus Productions Inc.
Petmancer $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Horse Arms LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.