Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon CRPG?

CRPG + Collectathon

Only 11 developers shipped a Collectathon CRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $780k, ×526 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 14 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 14 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for CRPG + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,525)
Top 25% $52k (exactly $52,220)
Top 5% $788k (exactly $788,203)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 33
Announced 14
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 30%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Collectathon
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 1,276 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $52k, 1 in 20 over $780k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 14 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Mosaique Neko Waifus 3 older $4.99 1,840 94% 55k $275k (exactly $275,448) Lil Hentai Games
硬币与仙人掌 (Coins & Wishpalm) $13.99 343 77% 10k $144k (exactly $143,957) Moshow Games
XiuzhenWorld2 $12.99 134 67% 4.0k $52k (exactly $52,220) Noforgetit
SOULVARS older $16.99 70 78% 2.1k $36k (exactly $35,679) ginolabo, SUCCESS Corp.
The Pleasuremancer · EA older $19.99 49 89% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) Mirrodin
Fit For a King older $9.99 74 94% 2.2k $22k (exactly $22,178) Brent Ellison, Tanya X. Short
戦国英雄譚-Samurai Heroes- $9.99 47 89% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) hizaniya games
AFKandia - Epoch of Idle $5.99 66 45% 2.0k $12k (exactly $11,860) Yang++ Game Studio
ちょこナナ older $24.99 9 77% 270 $6.7k (exactly $6,747) Asuka Watanabe
Card Streamer Simulator $2.99 17 52% 510 $1.5k (exactly $1,525) Scissors Game
スローライフサバイバー/SlowLife Survivor $6.99 5 0% 150 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) MIZUBLUE GAMES
Dream Dazia $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) CosmoRetro Studios LLC
Astral Alchemist ~Stardust & Shenanigans~ · EA $6.99 3 33% 90 $629 (exactly $629) Lophophora Games
Digital Waste $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Kevin Du, ChatGPT, Codex

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.