Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Investigation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Investigation CRPG?

CRPG + Investigation

Only 17 developers shipped an Investigation CRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Back to the Dawn, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450. 41 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper, while revenue is up 570% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 570% on the market, 41 announced, ×5.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Investigation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $600 → $599 → $8.9k → $3.6k (still earning) → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Investigation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $8.7k (exactly $8,691)
Top 5% $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 49
Announced 41
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 570% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 29%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Investigation; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Multiple Endings
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 8,815 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $960, 1 in 4 over $8.6k, 1 in 20 over $6.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
The Thaumaturge older $34.99 3,888 81% 117k $4.1M (exactly $4,081,234) Fool's Theory
Shadows Over Loathing older $22.99 3,120 95% 94k $2.2M (exactly $2,151,864) Asymmetric
Gamedec - Definitive Edition older $29.99 1,119 78% 34k $1.0M (exactly $1,006,764) Anshar Studios
Lost Dimension older $24.99 221 72% 6.6k $166k (exactly $165,684) FURYU Corporation
The Case of the Golden Night Apartment $9.99 89 44% 2.7k $27k (exactly $26,673) Buddy Studio
BORIS THE ROCKET 🚀 older $9.99 87 97% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,074) toR Studio
Kill The Clock · EA $14.99 45 88% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) Happy Slugs
涨粉二维码 older $1.99 221 77% 6.6k $13k (exactly $13,194) Eternal Dream
Work Life Balance $8.99 33 96% 990 $8.9k (exactly $8,900) LandUni Studio
Mind Control: Bloody Renaissance $9.99 29 100% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) BYYONI Entertainment
Imago Season $9.50 19 89% 570 $5.4k (exactly $5,415) Lunar Finch
Scapegoat & Rational $4.99 24 91% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) 萊斯特 LesterWind
The Broken Ceiling $2.99 16 100% 480 $1.4k (exactly $1,435) Iron Octopus Productions Inc.
Envyus $7.99 4 75% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Derni Borges
ESCAPE SITE 13 $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Miwu Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.