Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Loot

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot CRPG?

CRPG + Loot

Of 30 developers who shipped a Loot CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $450k, ×306 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 34 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 34 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Loot
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $356 → $26k → $1.5k → $17k → $8.1k → $390 (still earning) → $5.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Loot: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $390 (exactly $390)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,097)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $26,422)
Top 5% $458k (exactly $458,171)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 79
Announced 34
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Loot; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Action RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 3,478 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $450k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 7 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stolen Realm older $19.99 3,470 84% 104k $2.1M (exactly $2,080,959) Burst2Flame Games
Shadows: Awakening older $29.99 1,535 75% 46k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,040) Games Farm
FANTASIAN Neo Dimension $49.99 500 76% 15k $750k (exactly $749,850) Mistwalker Corporation
The Use of Life $19.99 764 90% 23k $458k (exactly $458,171) だらねこげーむず/Daraneko Games
Robber Knight · EA older $39.99 284 64% 8.5k $341k (exactly $340,715) Sartorian
Shadowhand: RPG Card Game older $16.99 668 82% 20k $340k (exactly $340,480) Grey Alien Games
Ember older $9.99 905 75% 27k $271k (exactly $271,228) N-Fusion Interactive
Fickle Card Legend $7.99 992 67% 30k $238k (exactly $237,782) 偶尔不帅
硬币与仙人掌 (Coins & Wishpalm) $13.99 343 77% 10k $144k (exactly $143,957) Moshow Games
Entropy · EA $11.99 293 94% 8.8k $105k (exactly $105,392) Lovely Hellplace
ANIWARS: Call of the Void · EA $12.99 184 93% 5.5k $72k (exactly $71,705) Breaker Interactive
XiuzhenWorld2 $12.99 134 67% 4.0k $52k (exactly $52,220) Noforgetit
Three Kingdoms Heroes $6.99 126 81% 3.8k $26k (exactly $26,422) 青衣工作室
DarkStone Restoration · EA $10.99 63 96% 1.9k $21k (exactly $20,771) Paul Cuisset
Six-Ear Macaque: Awakening $6.99 79 98% 2.4k $17k (exactly $16,566) 红景天娱乐

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.