Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Action RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action RPG?

Action RPG

Of 2,112 developers who shipped an Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4,654 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×914 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 4,654 games are announced against 1,171 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 4,654 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,112
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $1.8k → $2.2k → $1.3k → $1.8k → $1.6k → $987 (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,112
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,439)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,979)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715)
Developers, 2 yr 2,112
Released games 6,586
Announced 4,654
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 1,157,341 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 1,207 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 4,654 games are announced against 1,171 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Action RPG

60 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Action RPG + Naval Fair $15k 17 devs
  2. Action RPG + Western Fair $5.5k 13 devs
  3. Action RPG + Wuxia Poor odds $198k 7 devs
  4. Action RPG + Mechs Poor odds $59k 21 devs
  5. Action RPG + LGBTQ+ Poor odds $23k 44 devs
  6. Action RPG + Dinosaurs Poor odds $18k 11 devs
  7. Action RPG + Lovecraftian Poor odds $9.0k 24 devs
  8. Action RPG + Martial Arts Poor odds $7.0k 44 devs
  9. Action RPG + Romance Poor odds $6.5k 38 devs
  10. Action RPG + Dystopian Poor odds $6.3k 52 devs
  11. Action RPG + Steampunk Poor odds $6.0k 19 devs
  12. Action RPG + Time Travel Poor odds $5.1k 12 devs
  13. Action RPG + Ninja Poor odds $4.8k 11 devs
  14. Action RPG + Gothic Poor odds $4.3k 58 devs
  15. Action RPG + Pirates Poor odds $4.0k 25 devs
  16. Action RPG + Female Protagonist Poor odds $3.9k 320 devs
  17. Action RPG + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.4k 451 devs
  18. Action RPG + Cats Poor odds $3.3k 28 devs
  19. Action RPG + War Poor odds $3.1k 50 devs
  20. Action RPG + Sci-fi Poor odds $3.0k 224 devs
  21. Action RPG + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $2.6k 153 devs
  22. Action RPG + Noir Poor odds $2.6k 27 devs
  23. Action RPG + Cyberpunk Poor odds $2.4k 72 devs
  24. Action RPG + Vampires Poor odds $2.2k 29 devs
  25. Action RPG + Mythology Poor odds $2.2k 92 devs
  26. Action RPG + Dragons Poor odds $2.1k 57 devs
  27. Action RPG + Alternate History Poor odds $2.0k 41 devs
  28. Action RPG + Robots Poor odds $1.9k 54 devs
  29. Action RPG + Fantasy Poor odds $1.8k 898 devs
  30. Action RPG + Horror Poor odds $1.8k 176 devs
  31. Action RPG + Medieval Poor odds $1.6k 339 devs
  32. Action RPG + Magic Poor odds $1.6k 423 devs
  33. Action RPG + Military Poor odds $1.6k 33 devs
  34. Action RPG + Aliens Poor odds $1.6k 44 devs
  35. Action RPG + Zombies Poor odds $1.5k 119 devs
  36. Action RPG + Historical Poor odds $1.5k 68 devs
  37. Action RPG + Thriller Poor odds $1.2k 36 devs
  38. Action RPG + Dogs Poor odds $1.1k 7 devs
  39. Action RPG + Underground Poor odds $1.1k 32 devs
  40. Action RPG + Modern Poor odds $1.0k 38 devs
  41. Action RPG + Crime Poor odds $1.0k 22 devs
  42. Action RPG + Underwater Poor odds $1.0k 13 devs
  43. Action RPG + Supernatural Poor odds $958 55 devs
  44. Action RPG + Capitalism Poor odds $921 14 devs
  45. Action RPG + Space Poor odds $898 71 devs
  46. Action RPG + Demons Poor odds $750 131 devs
  47. Action RPG + Psychological Horror Poor odds $719 69 devs
  48. Action RPG + Assassins Poor odds $719 14 devs
  49. Action RPG + Mystery Poor odds $599 138 devs
  50. Action RPG + Artificial Intelligence Poor odds $599 53 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B Black Myth: Wukong 2024 · $1.6B ELDEN RING 2022 · $1.5B The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B DARK SOULS™ III 2016 · $500M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
Black Myth: Wukong older $59.99 881,186 96% 26M $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) Game Science
ELDEN RING older $59.99 831,470 93% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) FromSoftware, Inc.
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition older $49.99 823,357 96% 25M $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) CD PROJEKT RED
DARK SOULS™ III older $59.99 278,034 94% 8.3M $500M (exactly $500,377,790) FromSoftware, Inc.
Hogwarts Legacy older $59.99 274,801 89% 8.2M $495M (exactly $494,559,360) Avalanche Software
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition older $59.99 164,914 79% 4.9M $297M (exactly $296,795,726) Techland
Monster Hunter: World older $29.99 317,068 89% 9.5M $285M (exactly $285,266,080) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Monster Hunter Wilds $39.99 200,984 52% 6.0M $241M (exactly $241,120,505) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN $39.99 129,476 83% 3.9M $155M (exactly $155,332,357) FromSoftware, Inc.
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Stellar Blade™ $59.99 61,289 93% 1.8M $110M (exactly $110,301,813) SHIFT UP Corporation
Dying Light: The Beast $59.99 59,318 87% 1.8M $107M (exactly $106,754,605) Techland
Hades II $29.99 114,419 95% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,942,774) Supergiant Games
DELTARUNE $24.99 124,894 98% 3.7M $94M (exactly $93,633,032) tobyfox
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Remastered $49.99 59,690 76% 1.8M $90M (exactly $89,517,093) Bethesda Game Studios, Virtuos

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.