Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Action RPG?

Action RPG + War

Of 50 developers who shipped a War Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 109 more are announced, ×5.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×2.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×1390 the market median. Revenue is up 705% on the market; 109 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 705% on the market, 109 announced, ×5.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 50
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $2.1k → $2.2k → $897 → $1.0k → $6.3k → $1.9k (still earning) → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 50
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,148)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,988)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,082,806)
Developers, 2 yr 50
Released games 197
Announced 109
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 705% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 36,298 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 109 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ older $49.99 87,777 88% 2.6M $132M (exactly $131,639,167) Monolith Productions
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Warhammer 40,000: Inquisitor - Martyr older $49.99 19,552 75% 587k $29M (exactly $29,322,134) NeocoreGames
Sifu older $39.99 21,620 92% 649k $26M (exactly $25,937,514) Sloclap
Black Desert older $9.99 63,052 75% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,896,684) Pearl Abyss
Sands of Salzaar older $14.99 21,428 81% 643k $9.6M (exactly $9,636,172) 汉家松鼠Han-Squirrel Studio
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
Mount & Blade: With Fire & Sword older $9.99 11,213 87% 336k $3.4M (exactly $3,360,536) TaleWorlds Entertainment
Medal of Honor™: Above and Beyond older $39.99 2,466 65% 74k $3.0M (exactly $2,958,460) Respawn Entertainment
Three Kingdoms Zhao Yun older $19.99 3,829 66% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,296,251) ZUIJIANGYUE Game
METAL GEAR SOLID 4: Guns of the Patriots - Master Collection Version $29.99 2,315 96% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,082,806) KONAMI
FREEDOM WARS Remastered $39.99 1,211 69% 36k $1.5M (exactly $1,452,837) Dimps Corporation
Metal Slug Tactics $24.99 1,152 76% 35k $864k (exactly $863,654) Leikir Studio
近畿霊務局 - Kinki Spiritual Affairs Bureau $9.99 2,780 92% 83k $833k (exactly $833,166) Noto Muteki
Bad 2 Bad: Apocalypse $19.99 905 77% 27k $543k (exactly $542,728) DAWINSTONE
Huaxia: Warring States · EA $19.99 701 61% 21k $420k (exactly $420,390) 秦川汉渚
Granvir $14.99 842 90% 25k $379k (exactly $378,647) Airborne Games
FAIRY TAIL 2 $59.99 162 61% 4.9k $292k (exactly $291,551) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.