Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Action RPG?

Action RPG + Space

Of 71 developers who shipped a Space Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 181 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 181 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper, while revenue is down 85% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 181 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 71
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $3.1k → $1.8k → $2.2k → $2.7k → $2.5k → $839 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 71
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,834)
Top 5% $788k (exactly $788,203)
Developers, 2 yr 71
Released games 248
Announced 181
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 63% positive over 73,434 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $900, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $780k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 181 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Starfield older $49.99 115,202 58% 3.5M $173M (exactly $172,768,439) Bethesda Game Studios
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition older $59.99 62,205 91% 1.9M $112M (exactly $111,950,338) BioWare
Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel older $39.99 31,771 79% 953k $38M (exactly $38,115,669) 2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (… (2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Linux))
Warhammer 40,000: Inquisitor - Martyr older $49.99 19,552 75% 587k $29M (exactly $29,322,134) NeocoreGames
Mass Effect™: Andromeda Deluxe Edition older $39.99 16,741 73% 502k $20M (exactly $20,084,178) BioWare
EVERSPACE™ 2 older $49.99 12,040 85% 361k $18M (exactly $18,056,388) ROCKFISH Games
The Outer Worlds 2 $69.99 8,450 73% 254k $18M (exactly $17,742,465) Obsidian Entertainment
Mass Effect (2007) older $29.99 14,871 93% 446k $13M (exactly $13,379,439) BioWare
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
Voidling Bound $24.99 3,126 92% 94k $2.3M (exactly $2,343,562) Hatchery Games
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
Moon Mystery $19.99 551 67% 17k $330k (exactly $330,435) Cosmoscouts
Eventide Matter $5.99 927 95% 28k $167k (exactly $166,582) Ottropi Games
EDENS ZERO $59.99 92 80% 2.8k $166k (exactly $165,572) KONAMI
Entropy Survivors $9.99 487 80% 15k $146k (exactly $145,954) Moving Pieces Interactive
Astroloot · EA $6.99 587 92% 18k $123k (exactly $123,094) Andreas Hager Gaming

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.