Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Action RPG?

Action RPG + Lovecraftian

Of 24 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 62 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.0k, ×6.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×258 the market median. Revenue is up 1395% on the market; 62 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 1395% on the market, 62 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $9.0k → $181k → $1.2k → $2.2k → $18k → $9.0k (still earning) → $33k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $9.0k (exactly $8,994)
Top 25% $39k (exactly $38,687)
Top 5% $387k (exactly $386,845)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 67
Announced 62
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1395% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Dark, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 5,659 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $9.0k, 1 in 4 over $38k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 62 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Sinking City Remastered older $39.99 5,361 75% 161k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,592) Frogwares
Hell is Us $49.99 4,279 83% 128k $6.4M (exactly $6,417,216) Rogue Factor
Hellpoint older $34.99 2,582 76% 77k $2.7M (exactly $2,710,325) Cradle Games
Death Trash · EA older $19.99 3,460 91% 104k $2.1M (exactly $2,074,962) Crafting Legends
Eldest Souls older $19.99 3,125 76% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,874,062) Fallen Flag Studio
HellSign older $19.99 2,147 67% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,287,556) Ballistic Interactive
Source of Madness older $19.99 1,410 69% 42k $846k (exactly $845,577) Carry Castle
Morbid: The Seven Acolytes older $24.99 965 75% 29k $723k (exactly $723,460) Still Running
Disney•Pixar Cars 2: The Video Game older $19.99 970 79% 29k $582k (exactly $581,709) Avalanche Software
Stygian: Outer Gods · EA $24.99 516 80% 15k $387k (exactly $386,845) Misterial Games
Tombwater $24.99 282 92% 8.5k $211k (exactly $211,415) Moth Atlas
Peregrino $16.99 174 65% 5.2k $89k (exactly $88,688) Inverge Studios
HELL GALAXY $24.99 89 74% 2.7k $67k (exactly $66,723) Italian Games Factory
Dead Static Drive $29.99 43 37% 1.3k $39k (exactly $38,687) Reuben Games
SHRIMP GAME: OVERKRILL $11.99 93 89% 2.8k $33k (exactly $33,452) GasGod Games, GLUE MAN
Relic Abyss · EA $8.99 94 80% 2.8k $25k (exactly $25,352) Reverse Loop
Dead Wells: The Devil Fragment $14.99 40 70% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,988) Echo7Project
Void Sails $9.99 49 69% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,685) Ticking Clock Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.