Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Action RPG?

Action RPG + Psychological Horror

Of 69 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 149 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 149 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper, while revenue is down 70% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 149 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 69
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.1k → $1.6k → $7.2k → $3.8k → $449 → $2.6k → $300 (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 69
Bottom 30% $178 (exactly $178)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $6.8k (exactly $6,817)
Top 5% $715k (exactly $714,842)
Developers, 2 yr 69
Released games 188
Announced 149
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 52,494 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $720, 1 in 4 over $6.8k, 1 in 20 over $710k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 38 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 149 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Forspoken older $69.99 5,384 64% 162k $11M (exactly $11,304,785) Square Enix
CODE VEIN II $69.99 5,193 66% 156k $11M (exactly $10,903,742) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
The Sinking City Remastered older $39.99 5,361 75% 161k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,592) Frogwares
Cyberdimension Neptunia: 4 Goddesses Online older $29.99 3,928 87% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,534,022) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, TAMSOFT
Hellpoint older $34.99 2,582 76% 77k $2.7M (exactly $2,710,325) Cradle Games
Vigil: The Longest Night older $21.99 3,333 85% 100k $2.2M (exactly $2,198,780) Glass Heart Games
Cryptmaster older $24.99 1,671 94% 50k $1.3M (exactly $1,252,749) Paul Hart, Lee Williams, Akupara Games
Total Chaos $24.99 1,561 86% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,170,282) Trigger Happy Interactive
The Scourge | Tai Ương $19.99 1,192 93% 36k $715k (exactly $714,842) Rare Reversee, Beaztek
Stygian: Outer Gods · EA $24.99 516 80% 15k $387k (exactly $386,845) Misterial Games
Moon Mystery $19.99 551 67% 17k $330k (exactly $330,435) Cosmoscouts
Halluci-Sabbat of Koishi $7.99 701 91% 21k $168k (exactly $168,030) ZRIGN 地霊研究院
Survivor's Notes $6.99 352 91% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) MYSTERY CROWN, YESPLAY
Hariti $6.99 318 88% 9.5k $67k (exactly $66,685) Ghostcase
Trench Face $2.99 717 93% 22k $64k (exactly $64,315) Pulse Blue

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.