Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Dinosaurs

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dinosaur Action RPG?

Action RPG + Dinosaurs

Only 11 developers shipped a Dinosaur Action RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dinoblade, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $18k, ×12 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×969 the market median. Revenue is up 17605% on the market; 21 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 17605% on the market, 21 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Dinosaurs
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $41k → $2.6k → $106k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Dinosaurs: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Median $18k (exactly $17,993)
Top 25% $403k (exactly $402,616)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,451,274)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 35
Announced 21
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 17605% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Dinosaurs
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG
Price point
$19.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 5,960 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $18k, 1 in 4 over $400k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition older $49.99 95,804 87% 2.9M $144M (exactly $143,677,259) Guerrilla
Dinoblade $19.99 2,420 90% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,451,274) Team Spino LLC
LIZARDS MUST DIE 2 $9.99 2,232 94% 67k $669k (exactly $668,930) the Bratans, Smola Game Studio
Dinotica $17.99 746 86% 22k $403k (exactly $402,616) XA Studio
Tamer: King of Dinosaurs · EA $24.99 347 86% 10k $260k (exactly $260,146) Ride the Lion Studios
Utawarerumono: ZAN 2 $39.99 88 82% 2.6k $106k (exactly $105,574) AQUAPLUS
Utawarerumono: ZAN $39.99 85 77% 2.6k $102k (exactly $101,974) AQUAPLUS
Fossilfuel 2 older $19.99 142 80% 4.3k $85k (exactly $85,157) DangerousBob Studio LLC
Athos · EA older $24.99 95 58% 2.9k $71k (exactly $71,222) Neojac Entertainment Inc.
Time Survivors older $4.99 272 61% 8.2k $41k (exactly $40,718) Lunar Chili
Outbreak: Shades of Horror Chromatic Split $24.99 24 50% 720 $18k (exactly $17,993) Dead Drop Studios LLC
ErMa (Early Mammal) $7.99 11 90% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) AlmyriganHero
Sentinel Agency · EA $19.99 3 33% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Phantomedia
Breathbound $9.99 4 50% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) 十年

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.