Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Mythology

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mythological Action RPG?

Action RPG + Mythology

Of 92 developers who shipped a Mythological Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 215 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $220; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×1891 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 215 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 215 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Mythology
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 92
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.1k → $13k → $1.6k → $1.8k → $2.1k → $5.4k → $2.0k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Mythology: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 92
Bottom 30% $213 (exactly $213)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Top 25% $49k (exactly $48,568)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116)
Developers, 2 yr 92
Released games 254
Announced 215
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Mythology
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 182,791 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $220, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $48k, 1 in 20 over $2.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $220. 8 in 10 of the 57 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 215 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Black Myth: Wukong older $59.99 881,186 96% 26M $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) Game Science
Assassin's Creed® Origins older $59.99 119,764 85% 3.6M $216M (exactly $215,539,271) Ubisoft Montreal
Hades older $24.99 285,748 97% 8.6M $214M (exactly $214,225,276) Supergiant Games
God of War older $49.99 129,712 95% 3.9M $195M (exactly $194,529,086) Santa Monica Studio, Jetpack Interactive
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal older $19.99 190,184 56% 5.7M $114M (exactly $114,053,345) 鬼谷工作室
Hades II $29.99 114,419 95% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,942,774) Supergiant Games
God of War Ragnarök $59.99 32,502 89% 975k $58M (exactly $58,493,849) Santa Monica Studio, Jetpack Interactive
Gujian3(古剑奇谭三) older $29.99 40,829 85% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,733,851) 上海烛龙信息科技有限公司, Aurogon Shanghai
ASTLIBRA Revision older $24.99 30,262 95% 908k $23M (exactly $22,687,421) KEIZO
Titan Quest II · EA $34.99 17,398 81% 522k $18M (exactly $18,262,681) Grimlore Games
Jotunnslayer: Hordes of Hel $14.99 7,318 82% 220k $3.3M (exactly $3,290,905) Games Farm, ARTillery
SWORN $24.99 3,779 80% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116) Windwalk Games
The Lantern of the Laughless Saint · EA $19.99 1,460 89% 44k $876k (exactly $875,562) NerveLabs
YAR: Forgotten Throne $19.99 1,283 89% 38k $769k (exactly $769,415) Honor Games
Conquest Dark · EA $9.99 2,530 89% 76k $758k (exactly $758,241) Eldritch Sword Games
Bylina $24.99 715 72% 21k $536k (exactly $536,036) Far Far Games
Shadow Dungeon $9.99 1,387 78% 42k $416k (exactly $415,684) OO Cat

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.