Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Action RPG?

Action RPG + Dragons

Of 57 developers who shipped a Dragon Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 117 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $9.5M, ×6347 the market median. Revenue is up 665% on the market; 117 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 665% on the market, 117 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 57
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $24k → $3.8k → $718 → $1.2k → $1.8k → $2.7k (still earning) → $19k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 57
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,158)
Top 5% $9.5M (exactly $9,508,030)
Developers, 2 yr 57
Released games 181
Announced 117
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.50

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 665% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Adventure
Price point
$9.50 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 2D, Lore-Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.50.

The top 10 games average 57% positive over 260,490 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $9.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 117 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Hunter Wilds $39.99 200,984 52% 6.0M $241M (exactly $241,120,505) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
MONSTER HUNTER RISE older $39.99 79,847 84% 2.4M $96M (exactly $95,792,446) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Dragon's Dogma 2 older $39.99 76,627 62% 2.3M $92M (exactly $91,929,412) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Granblue Fantasy: Relink older $39.99 41,227 89% 1.2M $49M (exactly $49,460,032) Cygames, Inc.
DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE older $64.98 17,554 89% 527k $34M (exactly $34,219,768) DIMPS
Lords of the Fallen older $29.99 37,902 68% 1.1M $34M (exactly $34,100,429) CI Games
Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen older $29.99 37,437 88% 1.1M $34M (exactly $33,682,069) Capcom
ENDER LILIES: Quietus of the Knights older $24.99 43,092 93% 1.3M $32M (exactly $32,306,072) Live Wire, Adglobe
DRAGON BALL Z: KAKAROT older $19.99 43,951 92% 1.3M $26M (exactly $26,357,415) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
DragonSword : Awakening $29.99 10,568 90% 317k $9.5M (exactly $9,508,030) Hound13 Inc.
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
Dragonkin: The Banished $24.99 2,239 72% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,678,578) Eko Software
Huaxia: Warring States · EA $19.99 701 61% 21k $420k (exactly $420,390) 秦川汉渚
Dragon Is Dead $19.99 661 75% 20k $396k (exactly $396,402) TeamSuneat
Ancient Kingdoms · EA $15.99 473 86% 14k $227k (exactly $226,898) Ancient Pixels
Soul's Chronicle: Immortal Slayer $14.99 441 77% 13k $198k (exactly $198,318) 正向星光工作室
Cladun X3 $39.99 83 90% 2.5k $100k (exactly $99,575) Nippon Ichi Software, Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.