Do I ship it?

Games › Action RPG › Action RPG + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja Action RPG?

Action RPG + Ninja

Only 11 developers shipped a Ninja Action RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Nioh 3, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×6.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×3.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $24M, ×16507 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 43 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 43 announced, ×6.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $46k → $898 → $2.9k → $72k → $611k → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $2.7k (exactly $2,696)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 25% $597k (exactly $596,501)
Top 5% $25M (exactly $24,728,167)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 62
Announced 43
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Character Customization, Co-op
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 20,643 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.7k, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $590k, 1 in 20 over $24M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 1 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Ghost of Tsushima DIRECTOR'S CUT 2024 · $116M Nioh: Complete Edition 2017 · $44M Nioh 3 2026 · $25M Rise of the Ronin 2025 · $9.8M NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM Revolution 2014 · $6.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ghost of Tsushima DIRECTOR'S CUT older $59.99 64,591 93% 1.9M $116M (exactly $116,244,423) Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Softwa… (Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Software)
Nioh: Complete Edition older $49.99 29,580 78% 887k $44M (exactly $44,361,126) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Nioh 3 $69.99 11,777 78% 353k $25M (exactly $24,728,167) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Rise of the Ronin $49.99 6,503 64% 195k $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM Revolution older $29.99 7,228 84% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,503,032) CyberConnect2 Co., Ltd.
Neptunia x SENRAN KAGURA: Ninja Wars older $49.99 999 82% 30k $1.5M (exactly $1,498,200) Idea Factory, Compile Heart, Tamsoft
SAMURAI MAIDEN older $59.99 648 60% 19k $1.2M (exactly $1,166,206) SHADE Inc.
BLADECHIMERA $14.99 1,358 88% 41k $611k (exactly $610,693) Team Ladybug, WSS playground
Onimusha 2: Samurai's Destiny $29.99 663 85% 20k $597k (exactly $596,501) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Way of the Samurai 3 older $19.99 871 73% 26k $522k (exactly $522,339) ACQUIRE Corp.
Fight School Simulator $9.99 227 88% 6.8k $68k (exactly $68,032) Queen
Rogue Samurai $5.99 60 53% 1.8k $11k (exactly $10,782) CO's Entertainment
Katana Dragon $9.99 16 81% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) Tsunoa Games
FantasyJourney $9.99 15 80% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) XiangziArtStudio
Nightmarena $5.99 15 93% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) Colo Coko
Manga Ninja 漫画忍者 $1.99 9 100% 270 $537 (exactly $537) 玄清侠

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.