Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Action RPG?

Action RPG + Supernatural

Of 55 developers who shipped a Supernatural Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 106 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 106 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper, while revenue is down 55% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 106 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $896 → $54k → $1.3k → $1.9k → $1.8k → $90 (still earning) → $117 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $958 (exactly $958)
Top 25% $6.9k (exactly $6,920)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,170,282)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 133
Announced 106
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 14,554 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $960, 1 in 4 over $6.9k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 106 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ASTLIBRA Revision older $24.99 30,262 95% 908k $23M (exactly $22,687,421) KEIZO
Banishers: Ghosts of New Eden older $49.99 6,429 84% 193k $9.6M (exactly $9,641,571) DON'T NOD
Vampire: The Masquerade - Bloodlines older $19.99 13,889 94% 417k $8.3M (exactly $8,329,233) Troika Games
Hell is Us $49.99 4,279 83% 128k $6.4M (exactly $6,417,216) Rogue Factor
Weird West: Definitive Edition older $39.99 3,962 77% 119k $4.8M (exactly $4,753,211) WolfEye Studios
Atlas Fallen: Reign Of Sand older $39.99 2,773 74% 83k $3.3M (exactly $3,326,768) Deck13
RAIDOU Remastered: The Mystery of the Soulless Army $49.99 1,045 93% 31k $1.6M (exactly $1,567,186) ATLUS
HellSign older $19.99 2,147 67% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,287,556) Ballistic Interactive
Total Chaos $24.99 1,561 86% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,170,282) Trigger Happy Interactive
近畿霊務局 - Kinki Spiritual Affairs Bureau $9.99 2,780 92% 83k $833k (exactly $833,166) Noto Muteki
The Scourge | Tai Ương $19.99 1,192 93% 36k $715k (exactly $714,842) Rare Reversee, Beaztek
Project Werewulf $29.99 778 83% 23k $700k (exactly $699,967) FTRGameStudio
Stygian: Outer Gods · EA $24.99 516 80% 15k $387k (exactly $386,845) Misterial Games
消失的航班,还有她她她!Lost in the secret! $19.99 602 89% 18k $361k (exactly $361,019) Humongous Pictures
Night Swarm $9.99 1,142 78% 34k $342k (exactly $342,257) Fubu Games
RIFTSTORM · EA $14.99 659 70% 20k $296k (exactly $296,352) Confiction Labs, Agate

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.