Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Action RPG?

Action RPG + Military

Of 33 developers who shipped a Military Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 67 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×1923 the market median. Revenue is up 225% on the market; 67 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 225% on the market, 67 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $1.6k → $4.6k → $450 → $1.6k → $3.1k → $719 (still earning) → $1.4M (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,559)
Top 25% $249k (exactly $249,444)
Top 5% $2.9M (exactly $2,880,839)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 118
Announced 67
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 225% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 17,964 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $240k, 1 in 20 over $2.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 67 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition older $59.99 62,205 91% 1.9M $112M (exactly $111,950,338) BioWare
Azur Lane Crosswave older $39.99 6,537 68% 196k $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
Medal of Honor™: Above and Beyond older $39.99 2,466 65% 74k $3.0M (exactly $2,958,460) Respawn Entertainment
Pax Autocratica · EA $29.99 3,202 91% 96k $2.9M (exactly $2,880,839) Multiverse
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
Classified: France '44 older $39.99 844 70% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,012,547) Absolutely Games
Metal Slug Tactics $24.99 1,152 76% 35k $864k (exactly $863,654) Leikir Studio
近畿霊務局 - Kinki Spiritual Affairs Bureau $9.99 2,780 92% 83k $833k (exactly $833,166) Noto Muteki
Corsairs Legacy - Pirate Action RPG & Sea Battles · EA older $19.99 1,094 74% 33k $656k (exactly $656,072) Mauris, Tech-5 UG
Bad 2 Bad: Apocalypse $19.99 905 77% 27k $543k (exactly $542,728) DAWINSTONE
Huaxia: Warring States · EA $19.99 701 61% 21k $420k (exactly $420,390) 秦川汉渚
Granvir $14.99 842 90% 25k $379k (exactly $378,647) Airborne Games
Rise of Piracy · EA $15.99 520 77% 16k $249k (exactly $249,444) IrishJohnGames
METAL GEAR SOLID: MASTER COLLECTION Vol.2 $49.99 49 65% 1.5k $73k (exactly $73,485) KONAMI

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.