Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Action RPG?

Action RPG + Artificial Intelligence

Of 53 developers who shipped an AI Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 96 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 96 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper, while revenue is up 1475% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 1475% on the market, 96 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 53
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $298 → $89 → $987 → $0 → $600 → $1.7k → $6.3k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 53
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,679)
Top 5% $533k (exactly $533,344)
Developers, 2 yr 53
Released games 112
Announced 96
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1475% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 188,275 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $600, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $530k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 96 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Dragon's Dogma 2 older $39.99 76,627 62% 2.3M $92M (exactly $91,929,412) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Morbid Metal · EA $17.99 1,555 81% 47k $839k (exactly $839,233) SCREEN JUICE
SWORD ART ONLINE Last Recollection older $59.99 450 58% 14k $810k (exactly $809,865) AQURIA Co., Ltd.
Happy Island Fantasy $14.99 1,186 88% 36k $533k (exactly $533,344) HappyCreator
Undercover $14.99 667 77% 20k $300k (exactly $299,950) intiny
Ruins of Dawn $7.99 1,012 72% 30k $243k (exactly $242,576) 刷宝爱好者
Fickle Card Legend $7.99 992 67% 30k $238k (exactly $237,782) 偶尔不帅
EVOTINCTION older $29.99 173 86% 5.2k $156k (exactly $155,648) Spikewave Games
在赛博世界和100个道侣修仙 $17.99 255 69% 7.7k $138k (exactly $137,624) 雙峰狂詩曲
Astroloot · EA $6.99 587 92% 18k $123k (exactly $123,094) Andreas Hager Gaming
SeaCret 1 · EA $39.99 99 61% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Dalas
Warrior of Lust $11.99 255 79% 7.7k $92k (exactly $91,724) Aerisetta

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.