Do I ship it?

Games › Action RPG › Action RPG + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Action RPG?

Action RPG + Underground

Of 32 developers who shipped an Underground Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×0.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×105 the market median. Revenue is up 150% on the market; 50 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 150% on the market, 50 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.2k → $898 → $4.9k → $719 → $479 → $3.6k → $300 (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,078)
Top 25% $9.7k (exactly $9,712)
Top 5% $157k (exactly $157,053)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 86
Announced 50
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 150% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Dungeon Crawler, Action
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 2,489 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $9.7k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

HAAK 2022 · $1.7M Lumencraft 2023 · $651k Never Return 2021 · EA · $610k Spark in the Dark 2026 · EA · $598k Arx Fatalis 2007 · $366k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HAAK older $17.99 3,149 89% 94k $1.7M (exactly $1,699,515) Blingame
Lumencraft older $19.99 1,086 75% 33k $651k (exactly $651,274) 2Dynamic Games
Never Return · EA older $13.99 1,453 73% 44k $610k (exactly $609,824) YeMuNetWork
Spark in the Dark · EA $16.99 1,174 87% 35k $598k (exactly $598,388) Stellar Fish
Arx Fatalis older $4.99 2,443 87% 73k $366k (exactly $365,717) Arkane Studios
Vampire: The Masquerade - Justice older $29.99 235 64% 7.1k $211k (exactly $211,430) Fast Travel Games
Below the Stone · EA older $14.99 391 83% 12k $176k (exactly $175,833) Strollart
Goblin Dungeons $17.99 291 83% 8.7k $157k (exactly $157,053) Loolust
Ants Took My Eyeball older $12.99 248 93% 7.4k $97k (exactly $96,646) Bosmic Forge
goblinAmerica · EA $14.99 179 96% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Gil Lawson
Elmarion: the Lost Temple $14.99 93 67% 2.8k $42k (exactly $41,822) Fleon Games
DUNGEON RAZE $2.99 458 85% 14k $41k (exactly $41,083) KOTARO YOSHIDA
Runehaven $9.99 119 91% 3.6k $36k (exactly $35,664) Cikoria Studio
Dark Bone Prison $5.99 84 95% 2.5k $15k (exactly $15,095) Bunny Moon Shady
Deepest Dungeons $11.99 27 74% 810 $9.7k (exactly $9,712) Unmade Games
Loot Dungeon $6.99 44 54% 1.3k $9.2k (exactly $9,227) Electric Kite
Tome of the Damned $7.99 20 60% 600 $4.8k (exactly $4,794) Redtower Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.