Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War game?

War

Of 973 developers who shipped a War game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,872 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×2761 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,872 games are announced against 566 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 1,872 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 973
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $1.8k → $1.3k → $1.9k → $2.5k → $2.1k → $1.6k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 973
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $19,780)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,733,722)
Developers, 2 yr 973
Released games 3,804
Announced 1,872
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 63% positive over 536,169 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 537 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,872 games are announced against 566 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with War

139 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Arena Shooter + War Poor odds $748 47 devs
  2. Flight + War Poor odds $657 60 devs
  3. Tower Defense + War Poor odds $629 125 devs
  4. Third-Person Shooter + War Poor odds $599 72 devs
  5. Local Co-Op + War Poor odds $599 21 devs
  6. 3D Platformer + War Poor odds $539 27 devs
  7. God Game + War Poor odds $537 12 devs
  8. Twin Stick Shooter + War Poor odds $479 15 devs
  9. Score Attack + War Poor odds $478 30 devs
  10. 2D Fighter + War Poor odds $450 9 devs
  11. Survival Horror + War Poor odds $419 12 devs
  12. Arcade + War Poor odds $360 117 devs
  13. Shoot 'Em Up + War Poor odds $300 70 devs
  14. Beat 'em up + War Poor odds $299 13 devs
  15. MMORPG + War Dead $111k 2 devs
  16. Submarine + War Dead $67k 7 devs
  17. Co-op Campaign + War Dead $52k 11 devs
  18. Fighting + War Dead $13k 5 devs
  19. CRPG + War Dead $8.7k 10 devs
  20. Sports + War Dead $5.1k 4 devs
  21. Hidden Object + War Dead $4.7k 4 devs
  22. Dynamic Narration + War Dead $3.8k 8 devs
  23. Sniper + War Dead $3.0k 11 devs
  24. Puzzle Platformer + War Dead $2.7k 4 devs
  25. Racing + War Dead $1.5k 6 devs
  26. Combat Racing + War Dead $1.5k 3 devs
  27. Investigation + War Dead $1.1k 5 devs
  28. Trading Card Game + War Dead $719 6 devs
  29. Bullet Hell + War Dead $480 75 devs
  30. Driving + War Dead $480 14 devs
  31. Platformer + War Dead $479 13 devs
  32. Quick-Time Events + War Dead $479 13 devs
  33. 2D Platformer + War Dead $360 53 devs
  34. Hero Shooter + War Dead $359 25 devs
  35. Top-Down Shooter + War Dead $298 63 devs
  36. MOBA + War Dead $180 9 devs
  37. 4 Player Local + War Dead $90 7 devs
  38. Bullet Time + War Dead $60 11 devs
  39. Battle Royale + War Dead $59 11 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Battlefield™ 6 2025 · $620M Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M Battlefield™ 2042 2021 · $468M Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Battlefield™ V 2020 · $355M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord older $49.99 230,490 87% 6.9M $346M (exactly $345,665,853) TaleWorlds Entertainment
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Battlefield™ 1 older $39.99 200,661 86% 6.0M $241M (exactly $240,733,002) DICE
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
Arma 3 older $29.99 228,910 90% 6.9M $206M (exactly $205,950,327) Bohemia Interactive
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
Call of Duty®: Black Ops 6 $69.99 14,063 44% 422k $30M (exactly $29,528,081) Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High… (Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games, Infinity Ward, Demonware)
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER $49.99 13,554 82% 407k $20M (exactly $20,326,934) KONAMI
GROUND BRANCH $29.99 22,391 83% 672k $20M (exactly $20,145,183) BlackFoot Studios, MicroProse Software

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.