Do I ship it?

GamesTop-Down ShooterTop-Down Shooter + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Top-Down Shooter?

Top-Down Shooter + War

Of 63 developers who shipped a War Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 108 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 40 developers shipped in the last year and 108 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 108 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Top-Down Shooter + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 63
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $148 → $898 → $898 → $4.5k → $3.0k → $359 → $479 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Top-Down Shooter + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 63
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $298 (exactly $298)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 5% $278k (exactly $277,915)
Developers, 2 yr 63
Released games 217
Announced 108
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Top-Down Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Shooter
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 18,475 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 108 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Top-Down Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + VampiresFair16 devs · median $3.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  3. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 15 announced
  4. + IdlerFair24 devs · median $748 · 30 announced
  5. + ArcheryFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds12 devs · median $6.5k · 28 announced
  7. + Tactical RPGPoor odds12 devs · median $5.5k · 16 announced
  8. + Action RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + HistoricalPoor odds18 devs · median $3.3k · 24 announced
  10. + ModernPoor odds13 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds45 devs · median $3.1k · 125 announced
  12. + DystopianPoor odds24 devs · median $3.1k · 92 announced

All 150 pairs on the Top-Down Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
Call to Arms - Gates of Hell: Ostfront older $34.99 32,183 85% 965k $34M (exactly $33,782,495) Barbedwire Studios, Digitalmindsoft
Door Kickers 2: Task Force North $24.99 12,324 96% 370k $9.2M (exactly $9,239,303) KillHouse Games
Cleared Hot · EA $17.99 3,934 96% 118k $2.1M (exactly $2,123,180) Not Knowing Corporation
Taur older $24.99 2,011 79% 60k $1.5M (exactly $1,507,647) Echo Entertainment
Sky Force Reloaded older $9.99 2,687 92% 81k $805k (exactly $805,294) Infinite Dreams
Sky Force Anniversary older $9.99 2,091 92% 63k $627k (exactly $626,673) Infinite Dreams
METAL GEAR & METAL GEAR 2: Solid Snake older $19.99 775 83% 23k $465k (exactly $464,767) KONAMI
Renegade Ops older $15.00 1,005 85% 30k $452k (exactly $452,250) Avalanche Studios
Cyberhunt older $4.99 2,741 84% 82k $410k (exactly $410,328) NukGames
Trench Lord: Eastern Front $11.99 774 83% 23k $278k (exactly $278,408) Tracer Studio, LING YUN CO.,LTD.
Castle Of Alchemists $14.99 618 80% 19k $278k (exactly $277,915) Team Machiavelli
Metal Thunder · EA $10.99 567 76% 17k $187k (exactly $186,940) Dumbbell Games
INSANIO $9.99 48 66% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,386) somebody
TOUHOU RHAPSODY OF MOON RABBIT · EA $9.99 47 82% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) 瓦尔基里游戏
Banner of Conquest $4.99 89 65% 2.7k $13k (exactly $13,323) Haojoy Game
Astro Fighters $8.99 29 93% 870 $7.8k (exactly $7,821) Paul Connor
Frogmageddon $4.99 45 91% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) Frog Mage Udon, Sunset Dreamland

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.