Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Investigation game?

Investigation + War

Only 5 developers shipped a War Investigation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Lavender Quartz 境界秤動, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.1k against a market of $630. 11 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 11 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Investigation + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,134)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,246)
Top 5% $108k (exactly $107,910)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 25
Announced 11
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Investigation
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 1,850 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $2.2k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 11 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  11. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  12. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sigma Theory: Global Cold War older $17.99 892 77% 27k $481k (exactly $481,412) Mi-Clos Studio, Goblinz Studio, FibreTi… (Mi-Clos Studio, Goblinz Studio, FibreTigre)
Lavender Quartz 境界秤動 $11.99 300 95% 9.0k $108k (exactly $107,910) Edanoue, Inc.
Svoboda 1945: Liberation older $15.99 145 98% 4.4k $70k (exactly $69,556) Charles Games
Doomsday Robot Girl older $8.99 216 82% 6.5k $58k (exactly $58,255) Sunspot
Border Conqueror older $6.99 104 53% 3.1k $22k (exactly $21,809) Kanoe
Field Hospital: Dr. Taylor's Story older $4.99 105 89% 3.2k $16k (exactly $15,718) Gard Interactive
MINDMIST older $7.99 30 73% 900 $7.2k (exactly $7,191) Dragon Landing
Trouble Hunter Chronicles: The Stolen Creed older $19.99 9 100% 270 $5.4k (exactly $5,397) Iskonsko Studio
After The War older $4.99 36 36% 1.1k $5.4k (exactly $5,389) piratecat games
COPS 2170 The Power of Law older $11.99 13 69% 390 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) GFI
A Lost Man $4.99 15 100% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) Studio Arkos
Black Border 2 $1.99 19 63% 570 $1.1k (exactly $1,134) Bitzooma
HELLO HACKER $5.99 5 100% 150 $898 (exactly $898) h3ll0h4ck3r
Renounced · EA $6.99 3 100% 90 $629 (exactly $629) Emergency Exit

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.