Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Sniper game?

Sniper + War

Only 11 developers shipped a War Sniper game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sniper Elite: Resistance, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×7.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $3.0k against a market of $630. 29 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 950% on the market, 29 announced, ×7.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sniper + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $180 → $2.5k → $1.8k → $3.0k → $3.2k → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sniper + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,498)
Top 5% $7.2M (exactly $7,236,052)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 89
Announced 29
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 950% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sniper
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sniper
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 5,770 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $7.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sniper with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Sci-fiFair9 devs · median $600 · 10 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot20 devs · median $300 · 14 announced
  3. + MilitaryPoor odds28 devs · median $3.0k · 38 announced
  4. + TacticalPoor odds22 devs · median $1.4k · 33 announced
  5. + Action-AdventurePoor odds15 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  6. + FPSPoor odds36 devs · median $899 · 57 announced
  7. + CombatPoor odds24 devs · median $899 · 38 announced
  8. + Bullet TimePoor odds8 devs · median $899 · 6 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds12 devs · median $779 · 22 announced
  10. + ShooterPoor odds55 devs · median $600 · 84 announced
  11. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds10 devs · median $600 · 11 announced
  12. + ActionPoor odds69 devs · median $598 · 89 announced

All 36 pairs on the Sniper page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sniper Elite 4 2017 · $98M Sniper Elite 5 2022 · $37M Zombie Army Trilogy 2015 · $19M Sniper Elite 3 2014 · $19M Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 2021 · $15M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sniper Elite 4 older $59.99 54,258 91% 1.6M $98M (exactly $97,648,123) Rebellion
Sniper Elite 5 older $49.99 24,818 83% 745k $37M (exactly $37,219,555) Rebellion
Zombie Army Trilogy older $44.99 14,285 85% 429k $19M (exactly $19,280,464) Rebellion
Sniper Elite 3 older $29.99 21,407 82% 642k $19M (exactly $19,259,878) Rebellion
Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 older $39.99 12,781 83% 383k $15M (exactly $15,333,366) CI Games
Sniper Ghost Warrior 3 older $19.99 15,133 67% 454k $9.1M (exactly $9,075,260) CI Games
Sniper Elite: Resistance $49.99 4,825 75% 145k $7.2M (exactly $7,236,052) Rebellion
Sniper Elite V2 Remastered older $34.99 3,437 78% 103k $3.6M (exactly $3,607,819) Rebellion
Tactical Assault VR · EA older $19.99 3,375 77% 101k $2.0M (exactly $2,023,987) HammerFire Interactive
Sniper: Ghost Warrior older $7.99 5,723 58% 172k $1.4M (exactly $1,371,803) City Interactive
Dagger Directive $19.99 802 83% 24k $481k (exactly $480,959) Arcane Alpacas LLC
Beach Invasion 1915-Gallipoli $7.99 73 71% 2.2k $17k (exactly $17,498) AIx2 Games
Gun Reflex VR $8.99 42 61% 1.3k $11k (exactly $11,327) OBGames
WARRIORS · EA $17.99 6 0% 180 $3.2k (exactly $3,238) BAKROS DYNAMICS
Bedroom Battlegrounds $9.99 10 90% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) WCHC
Cannon Clicker $5.99 8 75% 240 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Ritual Interactive
BLOCKADE War Stories .VR $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Novalink
Star Witch $4.99 2 0% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Frozen Dungeon
Streamlands: Defense $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) NGD Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.