Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + War

Of 27 developers who shipped a War 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×356 the market median. Revenue is up 1850% on the market; 45 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 1850% on the market, 45 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $327 → $360 → $599 → $180 → $298 → $716 → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $7.8k (exactly $7,794)
Top 5% $223k (exactly $223,455)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 101
Announced 45
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1850% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
3D Platformer; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 3,238 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $540, 1 in 4 over $7.7k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sonic Forces older $39.99 6,742 61% 202k $8.1M (exactly $8,088,377) Sonic Team, Hardlight
近畿霊務局 - Kinki Spiritual Affairs Bureau $9.99 2,780 92% 83k $833k (exactly $833,166) Noto Muteki
SAMURAI WARRIORS 4 DX older $49.99 475 85% 14k $712k (exactly $712,358) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Wanderer: The Fragments of Fate $49.99 149 62% 4.5k $223k (exactly $223,455) Mighty Eyes
Citadels older $14.99 375 13% 11k $169k (exactly $168,638) Games Distillery s.r.o.
Xuan-Yuan Sword: The Clouds Faraway older $9.99 210 70% 6.3k $63k (exactly $62,937) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT, DOMO Studio
UNDER DEFEAT $19.99 81 95% 2.4k $49k (exactly $48,576) CITY CONNECTION, TAKE×0FF
KAMiBAKO - Mythology of Cube - $29.99 37 64% 1.1k $33k (exactly $33,289) GRAVITY GAME ARISE
2076 - Midway Multiverse older $19.99 40 80% 1.2k $24k (exactly $23,988) Ivanovich Games
Last Stand: Defense $5.99 116 81% 3.5k $21k (exactly $20,845) ZiiTech Games
FZ: Formation Z $29.99 16 87% 480 $14k (exactly $14,395) Granzella Inc.
Three Kingdoms: Shu-Han Chronicles $12.99 20 45% 600 $7.8k (exactly $7,794) QianFan Game
AURORA FLIGHT (オーロラ・フライト) $10.99 17 41% 510 $5.6k (exactly $5,605) すたじおわかる
Just Skill Shooter 4 $9.99 17 76% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Gamesforgames
Legend of the Wargod · EA $22.99 5 100% 150 $3.4k (exactly $3,448) Revelen

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.