Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War CRPG?

CRPG + War

Only 10 developers shipped a War CRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, MENACE, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×9.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $8.7k against a market of $1.5k. 28 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 5.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 28 announced, ×9.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $12k → $2.1k → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Median $8.7k (exactly $8,683)
Top 25% $131k (exactly $131,290)
Top 5% $15M (exactly $14,733,516)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 45
Announced 28
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 55% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 15,016 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $8.7k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $14M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×9.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Battle Brothers 2017 · $23M MENACE 2026 · EA · $15M Suikoden I&II HD Remaster Gate Rune and Dunan Unification Wars 2025 · $3.1M Lost Eidolons 2022 · $1.8M Han Xiongnu Wars 2017 · $461k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
Suikoden I&II HD Remaster Gate Rune and Dunan Unification Wars $49.99 2,049 94% 61k $3.1M (exactly $3,072,885) KONAMI
Lost Eidolons older $34.99 1,727 69% 52k $1.8M (exactly $1,812,832) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Han Xiongnu Wars older $6.99 2,200 67% 66k $461k (exactly $461,340) Shangshi Studio
Robber Knight · EA older $39.99 284 64% 8.5k $341k (exactly $340,715) Sartorian
Monarch : Medieval Remastered $11.99 365 80% 11k $131k (exactly $131,290) Mr.Lordy
三国真龙传 older $4.99 567 77% 17k $85k (exactly $84,880) 怪侠一枝梅
Siege of Avalon: Anthology older $9.99 262 86% 7.9k $79k (exactly $78,521) Digital Tome, General Arcade, Steffen N… (Digital Tome, General Arcade, Steffen Nyeland)
STRANGER SAGA -Stranger Bach and Iskiyeld's Ambition- $9.89 225 86% 6.8k $67k (exactly $66,758) Retro Game Balance & Mechanics -レトロ… (Retro Game Balance & Mechanics -レトロゲームの手応えとバランスを追求するデザイン工房-)
Beat the Humans $4.99 58 74% 1.7k $8.7k (exactly $8,683) Dochungryest
A Tragedy in Elvish $9.99 13 92% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) ONEONE1
Call for Heroes: Pompolic Wars $4.99 14 35% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Quotix Software
Last Stronghold $3.99 8 62% 240 $958 (exactly $958) skR1me
War of the Old Gods $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) A Thousand Myths
Knight Legion: Rpg Strategy $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Manushart

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.